三泰虎

日本内部的腐朽面对中国崛起不知所措

Jean-Pierre Lehmann

THERE HAS BEEN MORE bad news recently on Abenomics: inflation targets are not being met, growth remains anemic, business confidence is low and national morale is poor (made worse, no doubt, by recent earthquakes). Abenomics, however, was never likely to be the solution, mainly because the problems it proposed to address are the symptoms rather than the causes of Japan’s malaise.

最近安倍经济学的坏消息越来越多了:目标通胀率没有达到,增长乏力,商业信心低迷,国民士气低落(毫无疑问因最近的地震而更加低落)。而安倍经济学从来不是解决办法,主要因为安倍经济学所针对的问题其实是表象而不是日本的经济痼疾。

I first came to Japan in 1950 and have returned regularly in the ensuing decades. It is difficult for those who were not there to imagine what a dynamic place Japan was during the 1960s. Japanese, at virtually all levels, were outward looking, internationally curious and eager to learn. As a Frenchman I remember how eager ordinary Japanese students were to discuss Camus, Sartre, Proust and Gide, while taxi drivers, upon asking me for my nationality, would melodiously intone the Japanese versions of French songs such as “Sous les toits de Paris” and “Les Feuilles mortes” until we got to our destination. One such destination was a sushi bar where the chef lectured me on the foreign policy of Charles de Gaulle (and how Japan should learn from him).

我在1950年第一次去日本,之后几十年里常常来回那里。对于没有去过日本的人来说,很难想象日本在1960年代的时候是个多么生机勃勃的地方。实际上不管哪个阶层的日本人,都很外向、具有国际性的好奇心,渴望学习。作为一个法国人,我记得普通的日本学生是多么渴望讨论加缪, 萨特, 普鲁斯特和纪德,而出租车司机,询问了我的国籍之后,会唱起日语版的法国歌曲比如“巴黎屋檐下”和“秋叶”,直唱到我们到达目的地。我去过一家寿司吧,厨师对我大讲戴高乐的外交政策(以及日本应该如何向他学习)。

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Mass production of consumer electronics: symbol of Japanese economic miracle

消费电子商品的大规模制造:日本经济奇迹的象征

The 1970s were a bit more challenging as Japan was hit by the so-called oil shock, following OPEC’s steep rise, accompanied by the “Nixon shock” when the then president took the dollar off the gold standard, resulting, among other things, in the massive appreciation of the yen. Prognostics for Japan were grim. But it turned out to be in many ways Japan’s finest hour: Government and the public undertook dynamic adjustments. Consumption of energy plummeted, and production boomed as energy-saving measures were introduced and Japanese industry gained competitive advantages in miniaturization.

1970年代就比较有挑战性了,日本当时正受到所谓石油危机的冲击,这是由石油输出国家组织大幅提高石油价格导致的,另外还有“尼克松震荡”,当时的尼克松总统让美元与黄金脱钩,此举造成日元大幅升值以及其他后果。日本前景不妙。但是结果却是,在很多方面这是日本最好的年代:政府和公众经历了活跃的调整。能源消耗大幅下降,当采取节能措施以后,生产蓬勃发展,日本的工业在电子产品小型化方面取得了竞争优势。

When the Japanese economy seemed to collapse in 1991, I wrote an article that began by quoting Mark Twain: “News of my death is much exaggerated.” My view was that Japan would bounce back as it always had in the past. Some two-and-a-half lost decades later it is clear that I was dead wrong. As a Japanese friend subsequently explained, Japan had reacted against the earlier external challenges it had faced–total defeat in World War II, the oil and Nixon shocks–but the crisis of the 1990s arose from internal decay and rigidity.

1991年的时候,当日本的经济看上去就要崩溃了,我写了一篇文章,开头引用马克.吐温的话:“我死亡的消息被夸大了。”我的看法是,日本会复苏的,就像过去一样。2.5个“失去的十年”之后,很明显,我大错特错了。正如一位日本朋友所说,日本成功应对了早期的外部挑战——二战战败、石油危机、尼克松震荡——但是1990年代的危机是源自内部的腐朽与僵化。

It is true that the sociocultural atmosphere had considerably changed in the 1980s. This was when the “Japan as No. 1″ syndrome emerged. As the U.S. was economically struggling it was looked upon with scorn, in fact contempt, as was vividly illustrated by the publication of the hubristic book The Japan That Can Say No, coauthored by Sony cofounder and chairman Akio Morita and leading political figure Shintaro Ishihara, who was also known for staunchly denying that the 1937 Nanjing massacre had occurred.

的确,1980年代日本的社会文化氛围发生了巨大的改变。就是在这个时候,出现了“日本第一”症候群。此时美国的经济陷入困境,因而被日本诟病,实际上,是被鄙视,这种傲慢心态在《日本可以说不》一书中有生动的描写,该书的作者是索尼的共同创始人及董事长盛田昭夫和政坛人物石原慎太郎,石原也因矢口否认1937年南京大屠杀而出名。

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Height of Hubris: The Japan That Can Say NO

傲慢自大:日本可以说不

In contrast to the open and dynamic spirit of the Sixties, in the Eighties there was a whiff of nationalistic arrogance, while in the Nineties an autistic introversion took over. In the latter part of the 19th century, Japan was the only non-Western country to have successfully industrialized, modernized and joined the ranks of the great powers. In stark contrast, Japan has failed to adjust to 21st-century globalization.

与60年代的开放活跃的精神相反,80年代则可以嗅到一丝民主主义的傲慢,而到了90年代就是广泛的封闭内向了。在19世纪的后期,日本是唯一一个成功实现工业化、现代化,并进入强国之列的非西方国家。与此形成鲜明对比的是,日本没有能够适应21世纪的全球化。

Numerous indicators illustrate this. Let me focus on two: the English language and the rise of China. It is clear that English will remain for some decades to come the global language. Japanese score among the worst in Test of English as a Foreign Language results, second to last in Asia, just ahead of North Korea. The number of Japanese students going to study abroad is decreasing, while those from virtually all other Asian countries are increasing significantly. Japanese youth are becoming more, not less, insular.

多个指标说明了这一点。让我们集中看两个:英语和中国的崛起。英语在今后几十年里仍然是全球性的语言。日本在英语作为外语的测验中得分是最低的国家之一,在亚洲区里倒数第二,仅比朝鲜高。出国留学的日本学生人数在下降,而几乎所有其他亚洲国家的留学生人数都在大幅增加。日本的年轻人正变得更加保守。

From the late 19th century until very recently, Japan was the No. 1 power in Asia, having, among other things, beaten the living hell out of China militarily and economically. As I can testify from my stay in Tokyo in the 1980s, Japanese elites, whether in business, politics, media or academe, just did not see the resurgence of China coming.

从19世纪后期到前不久,日本是亚洲第一强国,曾经在军事和经济方面把中国打得屁滚尿流。我于1980年代在日本的亲历可以证明,日本的精英,无论是商业、政治、媒体还是学院精英,没有人看出中国将要崛起。

Decades later, it is clear that Japan has failed to adjust to the fact that China is well on its way to becoming one of the leading global powers, second only to the U.S. What we are witnessing today is “globalization with Chinese characteristics.” One example: Japan, apart from the U.S. and Canada, is the only country to have refused to be a founder member of the Beijing-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In the face of the China challenge, Japanese policy makers are running around like headless chickens.

几十年后,可以看得很清楚,对于中国成为仅次于美国的全球领军强国之一这一事实,日本没有做好调整。我们今天看到的是“具有中国特色的全球化。”举个例子:除了美国和加拿大之外,日本是唯一一个拒绝加入中国主导的亚投行的国家。面对中国的挑战,日本政府就像没头苍蝇一样乱转。

Japan will be reinvigorated if and when it regains its outward-looking spirit. Abenomics alone is no more than tinkering at the fringes.

如果日本再次具有外向的精神,日本就会再次焕发活力。安倍经济学只是杯水车薪罢了。

美国网民的评论:


译者:chubbytabby
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-397498-1-1.html



Julie Armitage

“apanese policy makers are running around like headless chickens” n Fascist Abe hijacked Japan

“面对中国的挑战,日本政府就像没头苍蝇一样乱转。”法西斯安倍绑架了日本

 
Earl Kinmonth

Anyone who would associate Abe with “fascism” clearly has read nothing about fascism in Europe. I don’t like Abe and as a Japanese citizen I do not vote for the LDP. Nonetheless, I find the association of Abe with “fascism” highly offensive. It suggest contempt for Japan and the Japanese.

任何把安倍和“法西斯”联系在一起的人都没有读过关于欧洲的法西斯。我不喜欢安倍,而且作为一个日本公民我也不给自民党投票。但是,我还是觉得把安倍说成“法西斯”是非常冒犯的说法。暗示了对日本和日本人的蔑视。

 
If Abe is “fascist,” than so are most Republican political figures and not a few Democrats. In European terms, Abe is center right. In much of the US, particularly the south and south west, Abe would be a left-winger.

如果安倍是“法西斯”,那大多数共和党员和不少民主党人都是。以欧洲的概念,安倍算右倾。以美国特别是南方和西南部,安倍是左派。

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