2016-01-25 10:04 25个评论 字号:

China’s wildly swinging market: Don’t worry, it’s just novice investors playing with a lot of savings


By Farok J Contractor

The drop in Chinese stock threatens to produce a bearish environment around the globe. A long-term view suggests that fears of spillover effects and recession may not be justified.Instead, the world economy may actually benefit from China’s successful transition from an economy emphasising capital investment, exports and savings to one based on innovation, services and greater consumption. Investors should take the long view.
Until a generation ago, most Chinese were poor, and ancient proverbs made saving a virtue.For Mainland China, sudden affluence has not yet erased frugal habits of the past. Hundreds of millions in China grew up on noodles or rice, with tiny portions of meat. The parsimony of the past lingers in the nation’s unusually high savings rate. The average American household, depending on the US economy , saves 0-4% of its income. By contrast, typical Chinese households sock away about 30% of disposable income.Government is trying to encourage consumption, but changing millennia-old habits takes time.

The huge savings surplus must go somewhere, and families have limited choices for investing. Traditionally, gold or valuables were secreted underground. Chinese banks offer depositors a negative return, after factoring in that country’s 6% annual inflation rate. Real estate prices have either doubled or quadrupled in the past decade, and anticipation runs high that the bubble, too, may deflate. Ordinary Chinese cannot easily convert their local currency and invest outside China because of government capital controls. Chinese turned to the stock market. In early 2015, hairdressers in Shanghai or Shenzhen told customers how they had doubled their investment in just two months between February and May . By contrast, in the first half of 2015, the S&P 500 barely budged. The mania for a “quick buck” affected all levels of society.

The average American may be richer than the average Chinese citizen, but there are four times as many Chinese.With 1.32 billion people, the savings add up. The total value of investments in China’s stock markets can be as high as $10 trillion at peak levels and $6 trillion or less during downturns, according to CNN’s Sophia Yan. By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange market capitalisation was around $19 trillion in 2015.

China chases limited options for a lot of hoarded money . Most Chinese investors are novices, willing to take more risks than western investors. Such factors explain the wild swings in Chinese markets.

The gyrations have little to do with the economy’s actual fundamentals. A study by scholars at the Wharton School and Shang hai Jiaotong University concludes that, unlike other nations where stock market indices do correlate with future GDP growth, “The correlation between market returns and future GDP growth for China … is much lower and statistically insignificant.”

It may seem like a paradox then that Chinese traditions emphasise frugality while the culture and history laud risk-taking. Studies by Weber and Hsee concluded that when it comes to social interactions, Chinese are indeed conformist and risk-averse, yet in financial transactions bolder than investors in the West. China also has a long history of gambling.

Chinese brokers allow buyers to buy shares on margin, with borrowed money , fuelling the drive-up in prices. Axiomatically , when the tide of sentiment turns, margin calls – a requirement that the investor immediately deliver more cash to cover possible losses – accelerate the total market plunge.

A survey by State Street Corporation suggests that as many as 81% of Chinese investors trade at least once a month, by far the highest rate in the world. With speculative excess, millions including taxi drivers and tycoons play stocks to earn a quick yuan. The 2007 and 2015 crashes have not deterred new hopefuls from entering this game.

The Chinese economy is undergoing a difficult transition.Surveys suggest less than 10% of Chinese households had stock holdings in early 2015, and the likelihood is low that they could drag the world into a recession this year. Reports vary , with investment firms estimating stocks represent no more than 10% of China’s household wealth.Too much is being read into the slowdown in GDP growth in that nation. As emerging economies grow, their growth rate naturally slows, and China is still growing at an enviable 6% per annum.

Maturing attitudes among Chinese investors could mean greater stability in stock markets worldwide.

(The writer is a professor at Rutgers Business School. Copyright: 2016 YaleGlobal Online)










译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/2016012501.html

Radha T

Not convincing at all.



Maurice DeArmon
I don’t invest in China anymore — I used to. I will not put a dime into China again until they allow their Renminbi to freely float. A cheaper Renminbi would be good for China’s debt-laden banks, sagging exports and foreign investment to China would increase again.





Truth Sach
Chinese market may swing for some more time, until it stabilizes somewhere at middle….



Kalyan Kumar
Chinese are also a potent technological force now So even for manufacturing of the future – based on 3D printing, robotics, nanotech etc- Chinese are better poised than say India.



Radha T

That is a fact, but we can catch up – we must.



Jose George
Huge economy and any downfall of that can create havoc in global economies…


Radha T





Chinese have the potential to damage the markets


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    • 就算经过证监会那帮孙子的屌断2次,也没亏进肉里,15年赚的吐了大半回去而已~要是说15年冲5000的行情你都没赚到年底还亏了,那还是早点收手吧……

      • 中国股市大跌明显是国际投机者,比如索罗斯等人在美国政F和犹太势力授意下做空行为,
        索罗斯这几天一直在叫唤中国经济前景不好,那么活跃还看不出问题,中美货币战和金融战早就开打了,没有硝烟,普通老百姓是不关注的,还好欧洲没有跟随美国QE,中国压力能小些,中国现在就应该持续贬值人民币,防止外资回流美国,投资中东工业化,联合俄罗斯帮助欧洲顶住美国压力,德国默克尔让弄得有些顶不住了。 习大大这几天在中东提出的巴勒斯坦问题,就是报复犹太人,让国际关注的焦点再次到中东以色列,打压犹太资本。

        • 索罗斯们这次扰乱中国股市必然成功不了,央妈一出手就把他们屠杀了,于是又开始想重演97年亚洲金融危机,矛头对准香港股市,香港双市暴跌,三十年罕见,不过索罗斯们忘了,中国97年时候就能打败他们,今天比97年强十几倍的大陆,他们是痴心妄想。

    • 去年真是刺激,从大熊到疯牛,然后又大熊,最后干脆玩儿起了猴市,政策三天一变,曲线就跟抽筋得一样波动,这根本就是一个毫无经济规律的市场

  1. 等中国人学会基础的投资知识后,也许会出现改变


  2. Maurice DeArmon
    I don’t invest in China anymore — I used to. I will not put a dime into China again until they allow their Renminbi to freely float. A cheaper Renminbi would be good for China’s debt-laden banks, sagging exports and foreign investment to China would increase again.




  3. 中国经济稳定高速发展了30年,在外国人眼里却还像一个刚回走路的孩子一样。什么都不懂,那些自认为真正懂经济的人和国家经济发展对中国指手画脚当老师的人,自己的经济发展却几乎停滞。更不要说30年前比中国还有钱几乎同是发展的黑3了,居然也觉得自己比中国人还懂经济,这真是个讽刺。

  4. 以前常投资中国,现在不再投资了


  5. 这篇文字我认为说的是实话,很多散户都是新手,也因为这些新手的跟风,造成了巨大的套利空间,被老手收割宰杀,造成股市大涨大跌。。

  6. 中国股民基数大倒是真的,再加上专家成天红脸白脸唱对手戏,小股民渐渐地也会在风浪中把握自己了。不过A股仍旧惨重,这里面有长期的计划经济下国企僵硬的影响因素