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印媒解读中国动荡的股市:别担心,投资新手在玩他们的大笔储蓄

China's wildly swinging market: Don't worry, it's just novice investors playing with a lot of savings

中国动荡的市场——别担心,只是投资新手在玩他们的大笔储蓄

By Farok J Contractor

The drop in Chinese stock threatens to produce a bearish environment around the globe. A long-term view suggests that fears of spillover effects and recession may not be justified.Instead, the world economy may actually benefit from China's successful transition from an economy emphasising capital investment, exports and savings to one based on innovation, services and greater consumption. Investors should take the long view.
Until a generation ago, most Chinese were poor, and ancient proverbs made saving a virtue.For Mainland China, sudden affluence has not yet erased frugal habits of the past. Hundreds of millions in China grew up on noodles or rice, with tiny portions of meat. The parsimony of the past lingers in the nation's unusually high savings rate. The average American household, depending on the US economy , saves 0-4% of its income. By contrast, typical Chinese households sock away about 30% of disposable income.Government is trying to encourage consumption, but changing millennia-old habits takes time.

The huge savings surplus must go somewhere, and families have limited choices for investing. Traditionally, gold or valuables were secreted underground. Chinese banks offer depositors a negative return, after factoring in that country's 6% annual inflation rate. Real estate prices have either doubled or quadrupled in the past decade, and anticipation runs high that the bubble, too, may deflate. Ordinary Chinese cannot easily convert their local currency and invest outside China because of government capital controls. Chinese turned to the stock market. In early 2015, hairdressers in Shanghai or Shenzhen told customers how they had doubled their investment in just two months between February and May . By contrast, in the first half of 2015, the S&P 500 barely budged. The mania for a "quick buck" affected all levels of society.

The average American may be richer than the average Chinese citizen, but there are four times as many Chinese.With 1.32 billion people, the savings add up. The total value of investments in China's stock markets can be as high as $10 trillion at peak levels and $6 trillion or less during downturns, according to CNN's Sophia Yan. By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange market capitalisation was around $19 trillion in 2015.

China chases limited options for a lot of hoarded money . Most Chinese investors are novices, willing to take more risks than western investors. Such factors explain the wild swings in Chinese markets.

The gyrations have little to do with the economy's actual fundamentals. A study by scholars at the Wharton School and Shang hai Jiaotong University concludes that, unlike other nations where stock market indices do correlate with future GDP growth, "The correlation between market returns and future GDP growth for China ... is much lower and statistically insignificant."

It may seem like a paradox then that Chinese traditions emphasise frugality while the culture and history laud risk-taking. Studies by Weber and Hsee concluded that when it comes to social interactions, Chinese are indeed conformist and risk-averse, yet in financial transactions bolder than investors in the West. China also has a long history of gambling.

Chinese brokers allow buyers to buy shares on margin, with borrowed money , fuelling the drive-up in prices. Axiomatically , when the tide of sentiment turns, margin calls - a requirement that the investor immediately deliver more cash to cover possible losses - accelerate the total market plunge.

A survey by State Street Corporation suggests that as many as 81% of Chinese investors trade at least once a month, by far the highest rate in the world. With speculative excess, millions including taxi drivers and tycoons play stocks to earn a quick yuan. The 2007 and 2015 crashes have not deterred new hopefuls from entering this game.

The Chinese economy is undergoing a difficult transition.Surveys suggest less than 10% of Chinese households had stock holdings in early 2015, and the likelihood is low that they could drag the world into a recession this year. Reports vary , with investment firms estimating stocks represent no more than 10% of China's household wealth.Too much is being read into the slowdown in GDP growth in that nation. As emerging economies grow, their growth rate naturally slows, and China is still growing at an enviable 6% per annum.

Maturing attitudes among Chinese investors could mean greater stability in stock markets worldwide.

(The writer is a professor at Rutgers Business School. Copyright: 2016 YaleGlobal Online)

以下是环球网的编译:http://oversea.huanqiu.com/article/2016-01/8438563.html

中国动荡不安的市场——别担心,只是投资新手在玩他们的大笔储蓄

中国股市下跌似乎预示全球熊市。然而,对溢出效应和衰退的恐惧是站不住脚的。相反,若中国经济成功转型,世界将受益良多。投资者应把目光放长远。

直到一代人之前,中国人还比较穷。突然变富并未让他们丢掉节俭习惯。节俭造就了中国的高储蓄率。美国家庭平均将收入的0%至4%存入银行,而中国是30%。尽管政府努力刺激消费,但改变老习惯需要时间。

巨额储蓄必须有出口,但中国家庭的投资选择却有限。传统上,黄金或贵重物品会藏起来。考虑到通胀率,中国的银行给储户的是负回报。普通民众把人民币换成其他货币并在海外投资,也非易事。于是,中国老百姓转向股票市场。2015年初,上海或深圳的理发师告诉顾客,他们的投资如何在三四月份增加一倍——这种赚快钱的狂热影响到中国社会的各个阶层。虽然中国百姓平均收入不及美国,但13亿人的储蓄加起来是个大数。很多中国投资者都是新手,比西方投资者愿意承担更大风险。这些因素解释了为何中国市场动荡不安。与其他国家不同,中国股市回报与未来GDP增长的相关性相当低,在统计学上并无意义。股市波动与这个国家经济的基本面关系不大。

中国人传统强调节俭,但其文化和历史推崇冒险,这似乎是个悖论。有分析说,在社会互动层面,中国人墨守成规、不愿冒险,但在金融领域,他们比美国投资者更大胆。中国人长久以来就好赌博。调查发现,多达81%的中国股市投资者至少每月交易一次,为全球最高。投机过度时,从出租车司机到大亨,都冲进股市赚快钱。股市动荡并未阻止新手不断入场。但调查显示,2015年初不到10%的中国家庭持有股票,他们将中国经济带入衰退的可能性不大。对中国增速放缓的解读显然过头了。(作者法罗克·康恰克特,传文译)

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以下是印度经济时报读者的评论:


译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/2016012501.html
外文地址:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/chinas-wildly-swinging-market-dont-worry-its-just-novice-investors-playing-with-a-lot-of-savings/articleshow/50693599.cms



Radha T

Not convincing at all.

不能令人信服

 
Maurice DeArmon
I don't invest in China anymore -- I used to. I will not put a dime into China again until they allow their Renminbi to freely float. A cheaper Renminbi would be good for China's debt-laden banks, sagging exports and foreign investment to China would increase again.

以前常投资中国,现在不再投资了

在人民币汇率能够自由浮动之前,我不会在中国投入一分钱。

人民币贬值,对中国负债累累的银行和低迷出口有利,进入中国的外资会再次增加。

 
Truth Sach
Chinese market may swing for some more time, until it stabilizes somewhere at middle....

中国市场还会摇摆一段时间,然后会稳定下来

 
Kalyan Kumar
Chinese are also a potent technological force now So even for manufacturing of the future - based on 3D printing, robotics, nanotech etc- Chinese are better poised than say India.

中国也是一支强大的技术力量,3D打印、机器人和纳米技术等,做得比印度更好

 
Radha T

That is a fact, but we can catch up - we must.

这是事实,但是我们能赶上去,而且必须赶上去

 
Jose George
Huge economy and any downfall of that can create havoc in global economies...

庞大的经济体,一衰落就会对全球经济造成严重破坏

Radha T


Agree.


同意



 
Ssindia

Chinese have the potential to damage the markets

中国人具备破坏市场的潜力

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