Can India really be the ‘next China’?
By Geoffrey Garrett
The bulls say India is the ‘next China’. Odds are they are right, if not today then within a decade or so. But even if this proves to be right in terms of growth, India is a very different country than China on many fundamental dimensions, demography and democracy being key. But most importantly, China has been built on infrastructure, investment and manufacturing, while India has barely scratched the surface on all three.
India began its economic reform in the early 1990s, more than a decade after China. But in the past 25 years, China has turbocharged its economy while India has languished in relative terms. Why?
Chinese growth has been driven by some of the world’s highest investment rates. This has, in turn, made possible an infrastructure revolution of new cities, high-speed rail lines, airports and ports and manufacturing muscle that is the envy of the world. China has also been the world’s factory for 20 years. Its ability to quickly and efficiently move what it produces domestically and around the world has been a critical ingredient in its growth miracle.
Today, India lags far behind China on all three dimensions. India invests about 30% of its GDP, compared with about 50% in China. Manufacturing is about 20% of the Indian economy, compared to China’s about 30%. China has arguably the best physical infrastructure outside the western world. India’s looks more like the poor country that it still is.
But this is a real opportunity for India. Increase investment. Improve infrastructure. Grow economic output. This is a tried and true path to growth, and it is one India is poised to follow.
Jagannath Sahoo (Bhubaneswar, India)
MAY BE INDIA GET THAT GROWTH IN NEXT 15-20 YEARS AS CHINA IF EVERY GOVT WORKING LIKE MODI GOVT…….
Potthai Lang ()
Look at the mindset of Indians, India can never achieved what China has achieved in the past 30 years. Even give India 50 years. If India close and cooperate with China, it can achieved something or else will forever stay behind China for at least 20 to 30 years. But Indians are suspicious of Chinese. Instead Indians preferred to trust other countries which are oversea and thousands mile away. These countries are only using India to counter China. They are not intending to help India’s economy.
Dulla sekhar (Unknown)
The differences are more than that can be listed at one between the two countries. India is a democracy first which china is not hence many decisions might end up in court or get delayed for political reasons.
Kalyan Kumar (Asansol)
And most certainly NOT if pappu, khichdi or any of the oppo jokers get the reins in nxt 20yrs.
Kalyan Kumar (Asansol)
If we can overcome the democratic (aka political & activist & stupid voters) barriers.
Ansh sharma (Unknown)
a rapid growth rate is required for India