从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

你的孩子不必非得学汉语

2015-03-06 17:10 65个评论 字号:

几年前,我女儿的学校把每周一次的西班牙语课换成了汉语课。因为学过这两种语言,我很反对这种做法,但是学校没做什么工作就作了此决定。于是,我9岁的孩子就学习起了人人都说有前景的语言。但拉里•萨默斯并不这么认为。早些时候,美国前财政部长和哈佛经济学者Lant Pritchett提醒美联储旧金山联储,人们说的“亚洲热”现象并不会持久。现在,该论文的文档已经对外公布了,这份论文基于中印的持续增长观,长达35页。

译者:iceland
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-250484-1-1.html
外文:http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/11/no-your-kids-dont-have-to-start-learning-chinese/281592/#disqus_thread

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A few years ago, my daughter’s schoolswitched from Spanish once a week to Mandarin Chinese. Having studied bothlanguages, I was very much opposed to the move, but the decision was made withlittle input. And so my 9-year-old is studying the language everyone says isour future.
Except Larry Summers

几年前,我女儿的学校把每周一次的西班牙语课换成了汉语课。因为学过这两种语言,我很反对这种做法,但是学校没做什么工作就作了此决定。于是,我9岁的孩子就学习起了人人都说有前景的语言。但拉里•萨默斯并不这么认为。

Earlier this month, the former U.S.Treasury Secretary, and Harvard economist Lant Pritchett, warned the SanFrancisco Federal Reserve that “Asiaphoria”—as they dub it—can’t last. Nowthe textof that paper is out, complete with the charts and analysis that formtheir argument.

本月早些时候,美国前财政部长和哈佛经济学者Lant Pritchett提醒美联储旧金山联储,人们说的“亚洲热”现象并不会持久。现在,该论文的文档已经对外公布了,里面配有图标和分析来支撑他们的论证。

It’s 35 pages of riveting reading,especially when you consider everything these days, from office expansions toinvestment decisions to foreign-language instruction, is based on the idea ofcontinued growth from Chinaand India.The economists conclude: “Hitching the cart of the future global economy to thehorse of the Asian giants carries substantial risks.”

这份论文基于中印的持续增长观,长达35页。如果你对时下的政府扩张,投资决策和外语教学等问题有所关注,它一定会对你有吸引力。经济学家断定:“将未来全球经济的马车系在亚洲大国的马匹上是要承担巨大风险的。”

Other notable takeaways (my paraphrases inbold):

其他值得注意的词语(粗体释义部分)

It can’t last

无法持续

“… China alreadyholds the distinction of being the only country, quite possibly in the historyof mankind but certainly in the data, to have sustained an episode ofsuper-rapid growth for more than 32 years.”

“。。。中国是唯一一个经历了32年的巨大腾飞的国家,很可能会是人类历史上的个例,但就记载来看是这样。”

There are many unknowns

有很多未知

“We have lived through a series of majorevents in our lifetime none of which were widely predicted by experts in theappropriate domain. Not just the obvious example of the financial crisis orperhaps idiosyncratic individual events like the attacks of 9/11 but majorgeopolitical shifts like the collapse of the Soviet Unionand the Arab Spring (and its seasonal sequalae) have not been anticipated.”

“我们在有生之年已经经历了一系列重大事件,但是相关领域的大多专家并未能预测到这些事件。不仅是诸如金融危机这样的典型事例,还是像9/11这样的特殊个体事件,而像苏联垮台和阿拉伯之春(及其周期性影响)这样的重大地理政治转变也未能得到预测。”

Especially in these places

特别是在这些地方

“All that said, we suspect that the reasonfor slowdown that will come in Chinaand Indiais for a similar reason but which will manifest differerntly [sic] given thevery different politics. That is, in neither country does investor confidencerely on rule of law. In both countries there are plausible scenarios in whichdisrptions [sic] of the current ‘political settlement’ that is providing aclimate for ‘ordered deals’ … will be disrupted. This disruption of thearrangements that provide settled expectations of investors can easily createprocesses with non-linear sudden stops.”

“综上所述,我们认为中印也会因类似的原因放慢前进步伐,而考虑到他们政治的差异,表现形式也会有所不同。换言之,任何国家投资者的信心都不是依赖于法规的。”这两国都以让人可信的方式将当前的“政治殖民”描述为为“有序的经营”提供环境。。。这一切都会瓦解的。而这种原定计划的中断,也会让怀着期望的投资者的进程突然中断。

Beware, for fast growth comes to a grindinghalt

注意,从快速增长到戛然而止

“Indiaand even more so Chinaare into essentially historically unprecedented episodes of growth. China’ssuper-rapid growth has already lasted three times longer than a typical episodeand is the longest ever. The ends of episodes tend to see full regression tothe mean, abruptly.”

“印度,尤其是中国正处于空前的增长期。中国快速增长期持续的时间是有史以来最长的,比任何典型的增长期要长两倍多。”而最后只会突然向均数回归。



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