从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

中国将构建欧亚帝国3.0时代?

2015-02-25 20:45 60个评论 字号:

1904年,地缘政 治学的创始人哈尔福德•麦金德爵士曾断言,随着陆权时代的到来,由西方海上列强所主宰的“哥伦布时代”已经走到了尽头。在陆权时代中,欧亚大陆的“心脏地 带”(又称“枢纽区域”)将成为统治世界的关键。该枢纽区域中的中北部欧亚大陆,与当时的俄帝国领土有大面积的重合。麦金德的主要担忧是,一个迅速工业化和积极对外扩张的沙皇俄国将成功挑战西方以海权为基础的霸主地位,凭的就是身处“心脏地带”地缘政治中心的优势和对欧亚大陆内辽阔陆地巨大潜力的利用。事实上,不管是沙皇俄国还是苏联,都未能实现这样的壮举。

译者:时间段基地
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336368-1-1.html
外文:http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/mackinder-revisited-will-china-establish-eurasian-empire-3-0/

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资料图(来自网络)

In 1904 the founder of geopolitics Sir Halford Mackinder famously pronounced the end of “the Columbian epoch” – that of the dominance of the Western sea power – and the advent of the age of land power, in which the Heartland of Eurasia, or “the pivot area,” would hold the key to the world domination. The pivot area largely corresponded to the territory of the then Russian Empire – occupying central and northern Eurasia.

1904年,地缘政治学的创始人哈尔福德•麦金德爵士曾断言,随着陆权时代的到来,由西方海上列强所主宰的“哥伦布时代”已经走到了尽头。在陆权时代中,欧亚大陆的“心脏地带”(又称“枢纽区域”)将成为统治世界的关键。该枢纽区域中的中北部欧亚大陆,与当时的俄帝国领土有大面积的重合。

Mackinder’s main concern was that a rapidly industrializing and expansionist Tsarist Russia could successfully challenge the West’s sea-power-based primacy, taking advantage of the Heartland’s geostrategic centrality and harnessing the huge potentialities of Inner Eurasia’s vast landmass. In actuality, Russia was never able to pull off such a feat – neither under the Tsar, nor in its Soviet reincarnation. It seems even less capable of achieving it now, being reduced to a rump of its former imperial glory and struggling with a shaky economy.

麦金德的主要担忧是,一个迅速工业化和积极对外扩张的沙皇俄国将成功挑战西方以海权为基础的霸主地位,凭的就是身处“心脏地带”地缘政治中心的优势和对欧亚大陆内辽阔陆地巨大潜力的利用。事实上,不管是沙皇俄国还是苏联,都未能实现这样的壮举。现如今,对还在摇摇欲坠的经济中苦苦挣扎、已不复往日帝国荣耀的俄罗斯来说,这个目标变得更加遥不可及。

Nevertheless, it may be a little bit too early to write off Mackinder’s prophecies. For there has emerged another contender for the control over the Heartland: China. Although Beijing is making inroads in places as far away as Africa and Latin America, its main game is in Eurasia. We can only guess if Chinese leaders have read Mackinder, but the strategies they are pursuing are more or less in line with the British geographer’s theory.

不过现在就说麦金德预言失败还为时尚早。因为“心脏地带”控制权的争夺战又加入了一位竞争者:中国。尽管中国正大举进军遥远的非洲和拉美地区,但欧亚大陆仍是它的主战场。中国领导人是否读过麦金德的著作,我们不得而知,但是他们所制定的策略却或多或少地与这位英国地理学家提出的原理相符合。

For one thing, Beijing is aggressively seeking to (re)create the Silk Road that is envisioned as Eurasia’s superhighway – running through the Heartland and reliably linking China with other parts of the continent, such as Europe, the Middle East, Southeast and South Asia. In order to fund this grand design, new financial institutions are being created by China like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund.

一方面,中国政府正积极推动丝绸之路的重建,有望将其打造成欧亚大陆上一条横跨“心脏地带”的超高速公路,把中国与欧洲、中东、东南亚与南亚有效地连接在一起。为了给这一宏伟的计划筹措资金,中国成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金。

In the new Silk Road, railways will play the key role. China is rapidly expanding its own railway network and has become the world’s leader in building high-speed lines, while also expanding into neighboring countries. Central Asia has so far been the main target of this multi-billion dollar push to upgrade and construct rail lines, roads, pipelines and other infrastructure. Another possible trunk of the twenty-first-century Silk Road will run from China further north. One section of it, a planned high-speed railway stretching some 7,000 kilometers, will connect Moscow and Beijing, cutting the travel time between the two cities from the current six or more days to about 33 hours.

在建设新丝绸之路的过程中,铁路将发挥关键作用。已经成为全球高铁建设领头羊的中国在迅速扩大境内铁路网的同时,也把铁路修到了邻国。数十亿美元的资金主要用于推动中亚地区铁路线、公路、管道及其他基础设施的建设和升级。这条21世纪丝绸之路的另一干线将从中国的更北边出发。其中一段计划建造长度为7千公里的高铁把莫斯科与北京连接起来,让时间从原来的6天以上缩短到33个小时左右。

If successful in this “rail offensive,” the Chinese may finally prove correct Mackinder’s assertion that “trans-continental railways are…transmuting the conditions of land-power, and nowhere can they have such effect as in the closed heart-land of Euro-Asia.” Emphasizing the advantages of rail over ship, Mackinder argued that “the continental railway truck may run direct from the exporting factory into the importing warehouse.” In contemporary economic parlance, this is called a seamless transportation system. And China obviously wants to be the designer and the principal hub of an emerging Eurasian connectivity web. Importantly, this continental Eurasian network will largely be out of reach for the United States, whose naval forces command global sea lanes, causing anxiety in Beijing over a possible blockade of China’s trade, still predominantly sea-borne.

如果“铁路攻势”奏效的话,中国的这一举动便印证了麦金德的断言:“跨大陆铁路…正改变着陆上强国的状况,它也只在封闭的欧亚大陆‘心脏地带’才会有这样的效果。”为了强调铁路对水路的优势,麦金德称“陆上铁路货车可直接从出口工厂开到进口仓库”。按当代经济的说法,这叫做无缝运输系统。很显然中国想成为新兴欧亚大陆交通网络的设计师和重要枢纽。欧亚大陆交通网络对中国的重要性还体现在其远离美国海军的控制范围,对仍以海运为主的中国贸易来说,海路被美国封锁的风险是他们不得不担心的问题。

Supplementing China-centered transcontinental rail network are planned oceanic routes emanating from Chinese ports and hugging Eurasian shores. Foremost among them is Maritime Silk Road, traversing the seas of Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The Kra Canal across an isthmus in Southern Thailand, whose construction, funded by Chinese, may begin soon, will draw the Maritime Silk Road closer to China-friendly countries, such as Cambodia, Thailand and Burma, reducing the significance of Malacca Strait controlled by the U.S. Navy. China is also eying the Northern Sea Route, which is passing via the Arctic areas controlled by Moscow, Beijing’s increasingly close “strategic partner.”

作为以中国为中心的跨大陆铁路网的补充,海上航线计划将中国港口与欧亚大陆各海岸紧密联系在一起。其中最重要的一条航线便是海上丝绸之路,线路会经过东南亚和印度洋的海域。开工在即的泰国南部克拉地峡运河,将由中国筹资承建,运河建成后将拉近海上丝绸之路与柬埔寨、泰国及缅甸等对华友好国家的距离,同时还可削弱处于美海军控制的马六甲海峡的重要性。被中国盯上的还有北海航线,这条穿越北极地区的航线处在俄罗斯的控制之下,而中国与俄罗斯的“战略合作伙伴”关系正日益紧密。

In China’s Eurasian vision, economic considerations are intertwined with geo-strategic. Economically, China will benefit from establishing a huge integrated area under its leadership. Strategically, this continental zone of Chinese influence will be largely impregnable to hostile U>S. interventions, should a grave crisis occur in Sino-American relations. The U.S., possessing unrivaled naval capabilities, may well inflict damage upon the maritime margins of China’s geo-economic empire, but it will hardly be able to strike at its terrestrial core centered around Eurasian Heartland.

在中国的欧亚愿景中,经济利益与地缘战略是紧密联系在一起的。经济方面,建立起一个巨大的综合性区域并把它置于自己的领导下,中国将会从中获益。在战略层面上,处在中国影响下的欧亚大陆区域将成为其抵抗美国干涉的一道屏障,避免可能发生在两国间的严重危机。拥有无敌海上军事力量的美国,可以侵扰中国地缘经济帝国的海岸线,但却不太可能打击到它在欧亚大陆“心脏地带”的陆地核心区域。

Russia – China’s Own Canada?

俄罗斯——中国的“加拿大”?

China will not be able to create its Eurasian fortress without collaboration, or at least acquiescence, from the other great Eurasian power – Russia. Although a far cry from the heydays of the Tsarist Empire and the Soviet Union, Russia still controls much of the crucial Heartland areas – as its own territories in northern Eurasia and zones of political influence in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

如果没有另一欧亚强权——俄罗斯的配合或默许,中国将无法建立它的欧亚堡垒。虽然当前国力与沙俄帝国和苏联全盛时期相距甚远,但俄罗斯仍掌控着“心脏地带”的大片关键区域,其中既包括它在北部欧亚大陆的领土,又包括它在中亚和东欧的政治影响力。

It looks increasingly likely that Moscow, despite erstwhile Eurasian ambitions of its own, will not stand in the way of Beijing’s grand designs. Locked in a bitter fight with the West over Ukraine and other issues, Russia has no choice but to move closer toward China. In particular, plunging oil prices and Western sanctions are threatening to ruin Russia’s financial system. Beijing seems ready to come to the rescue. In October 2014, the central banks of the two countries signed a currency swap agreement worth 150 billion yuan ($25 billion), allowing Russia to draw on China’s renminbi in case of need. In December 2014, Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that China was willing to help Russia, if needed. The question is what political and economic strings Beijing is going to attach to any assistance it might be willing to extend to a struggling Russia. The price tag will likely include privileged access to Russia’s natural resources and military technologies, as well as Moscow’s consent to China-led economic schemes in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.

过去俄罗斯也曾对欧亚大陆抱有野心,但就目前看来,它不太可能会阻挠中国的宏伟规划。在乌克兰问题及其他事务上与西方陷入一场苦战时,别无选择的俄罗斯只能倒向中国。油价的骤降和西方的制裁更是让俄罗斯金融体系面临崩溃的危险。中国似乎已经做好出手相助的准备了。2014年10月,中国央行与俄罗斯联邦中央银行签订了规模为1500亿元人民币(250亿美元)的货币互换协议,允许俄罗斯在需要时可以动用中国的人民币。2014年12月,中国外交部长王毅宣布,中国将在必要时给予俄罗斯援助。至于中国在援助困境中挣扎的俄罗斯时会附加哪些政治和经济方面的条件,这还是个疑问。(援助的)代价有可能包括获取俄自然资源和军事技术的特权,还有俄方同意在中亚的前苏联加盟共和国实行中国主导的经济计划。

Even those in Russia’s China-watching community who are quite sympathetic toward Beijing, acknowledge that the new Silk Road is motivated “not only by its future economic benefits, but also geopolitical calculations, hopes to create in Eurasia a ‘growth base’ for a future great Eurasian power.” However, it is far from clear what long-term implications this would have for Russia and whether it would be at all possible for the two great-power Eurasian projects to co-exist peacefully.

即便是比较亲华的俄中国问题观察家们,也承认建设新丝绸之路的动机不仅仅只是为了日后的经济利益,其中还包含着地缘政治考量,中国希望能在欧亚大陆上建立起一个新兴欧亚强权的“成长基地”。这会给俄罗斯带来哪些长远的影响目前尚不清楚,而这两大强权的欧亚大陆计划能否和平共存也还是个未知数。

As Russia’s leading analysts point out, China’s Silk Road initiatives may consume Moscow’s own cherished project of Eurasian Union. According to Dmitri Trenin, “What might be expected . . . is an energy, investment and industrial-technological partnership between China and Russia which will reshape and rebalance Eurasia, whose center of gravity will now move from Moscow to Beijing.”

俄权威分析人士指出,中国积极推动新丝绸之路建设会毁掉俄罗斯自己所中意的欧亚联盟计划。Dmitri Trenin称,“可以预见的是,中俄之间的能源、投资与工业技术合作将实现对欧亚大陆的重塑和再平衡,从今起欧亚大陆的重心将从俄罗斯转移到中国。”

If Russia is lucky it may eventually become China’s own “Canada” – a vast storehouse of natural resources catering for a powerful southern neighbor, while retaining a degree of sovereignty. However, in the worst-case scenario, Russia will end up as a vassal within a Chinese empire. It is striking that, back in 1904 Mackinder anticipated the possible incorporation of Russia into the Chinese domain and the danger that could pose to the West: “Were the Chinese, for instance, organized by the Japanese, to overthrow the Russian Empire and conquer its territory, they might constitute the yellow peril to the world’s freedom just because they would add an oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent…” He was only mistaken about the Japanese. Rather than “organizing” a China-led empire in Eurasia, Tokyo is now trying to prevent an entente between Moscow and Beijing for fear of facing a powerful hostile bloc.

如果幸运的话,俄罗斯最终可能会变成中国的“加拿大”——一个专为强大的南部邻国提供自然资源的大仓库,同时保留一定程度的主权。但最坏的结果也有可能是,俄罗斯最后沦为中华帝国的附庸。令人吃惊的是,早在1904年,麦金德就预见到了俄罗斯被中国吞并的可能性和西方将面临的危险:“举例来说,如果中国人在日本人的组织下推翻俄帝国并入侵其领土,他们就将成为危及世界自由的‘黄祸’,因为他们会为这片大陆上的资源找到一个出海口…”唯一不在他预料之内的就是日本。比起“组建”一个欧亚大陆上的中华帝国,日本现在更害怕面对一个强大的敌对阵营,因此它正想方设法阻挠中俄之间的友好关系。



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