从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

中国将构建欧亚帝国3.0时代?

2015-02-25 20:45 59个评论 字号:

1904年,地缘政 治学的创始人哈尔福德•麦金德爵士曾断言,随着陆权时代的到来,由西方海上列强所主宰的“哥伦布时代”已经走到了尽头。在陆权时代中,欧亚大陆的“心脏地 带”(又称“枢纽区域”)将成为统治世界的关键。该枢纽区域中的中北部欧亚大陆,与当时的俄帝国领土有大面积的重合。麦金德的主要担忧是,一个迅速工业化和积极对外扩张的沙皇俄国将成功挑战西方以海权为基础的霸主地位,凭的就是身处“心脏地带”地缘政治中心的优势和对欧亚大陆内辽阔陆地巨大潜力的利用。事实上,不管是沙皇俄国还是苏联,都未能实现这样的壮举。

译者:时间段基地
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336368-1-1.html
外文:http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/mackinder-revisited-will-china-establish-eurasian-empire-3-0/

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资料图(来自网络)

In 1904 the founder of geopolitics Sir Halford Mackinder famously pronounced the end of “the Columbian epoch” – that of the dominance of the Western sea power – and the advent of the age of land power, in which the Heartland of Eurasia, or “the pivot area,” would hold the key to the world domination. The pivot area largely corresponded to the territory of the then Russian Empire – occupying central and northern Eurasia.

1904年,地缘政治学的创始人哈尔福德•麦金德爵士曾断言,随着陆权时代的到来,由西方海上列强所主宰的“哥伦布时代”已经走到了尽头。在陆权时代中,欧亚大陆的“心脏地带”(又称“枢纽区域”)将成为统治世界的关键。该枢纽区域中的中北部欧亚大陆,与当时的俄帝国领土有大面积的重合。

Mackinder’s main concern was that a rapidly industrializing and expansionist Tsarist Russia could successfully challenge the West’s sea-power-based primacy, taking advantage of the Heartland’s geostrategic centrality and harnessing the huge potentialities of Inner Eurasia’s vast landmass. In actuality, Russia was never able to pull off such a feat – neither under the Tsar, nor in its Soviet reincarnation. It seems even less capable of achieving it now, being reduced to a rump of its former imperial glory and struggling with a shaky economy.

麦金德的主要担忧是,一个迅速工业化和积极对外扩张的沙皇俄国将成功挑战西方以海权为基础的霸主地位,凭的就是身处“心脏地带”地缘政治中心的优势和对欧亚大陆内辽阔陆地巨大潜力的利用。事实上,不管是沙皇俄国还是苏联,都未能实现这样的壮举。现如今,对还在摇摇欲坠的经济中苦苦挣扎、已不复往日帝国荣耀的俄罗斯来说,这个目标变得更加遥不可及。

Nevertheless, it may be a little bit too early to write off Mackinder’s prophecies. For there has emerged another contender for the control over the Heartland: China. Although Beijing is making inroads in places as far away as Africa and Latin America, its main game is in Eurasia. We can only guess if Chinese leaders have read Mackinder, but the strategies they are pursuing are more or less in line with the British geographer’s theory.

不过现在就说麦金德预言失败还为时尚早。因为“心脏地带”控制权的争夺战又加入了一位竞争者:中国。尽管中国正大举进军遥远的非洲和拉美地区,但欧亚大陆仍是它的主战场。中国领导人是否读过麦金德的著作,我们不得而知,但是他们所制定的策略却或多或少地与这位英国地理学家提出的原理相符合。

For one thing, Beijing is aggressively seeking to (re)create the Silk Road that is envisioned as Eurasia’s superhighway – running through the Heartland and reliably linking China with other parts of the continent, such as Europe, the Middle East, Southeast and South Asia. In order to fund this grand design, new financial institutions are being created by China like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund.

一方面,中国正积极推动丝绸之路的重建,有望将其打造成欧亚大陆上一条横跨“心脏地带”的超高速公路,把中国与欧洲、中东、东南亚与南亚有效地连接在一起。为了给这一宏伟的计划筹措资金,中国成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金。

In the new Silk Road, railways will play the key role. China is rapidly expanding its own railway network and has become the world’s leader in building high-speed lines, while also expanding into neighboring countries. Central Asia has so far been the main target of this multi-billion dollar push to upgrade and construct rail lines, roads, pipelines and other infrastructure. Another possible trunk of the twenty-first-century Silk Road will run from China further north. One section of it, a planned high-speed railway stretching some 7,000 kilometers, will connect Moscow and Beijing, cutting the travel time between the two cities from the current six or more days to about 33 hours.

在建设新丝绸之路的过程中,铁路将发挥关键作用。已经成为全球高铁建设领头羊的中国在迅速扩大境内铁路网的同时,也把铁路修到了邻国。数十亿美元的资金主要用于推动中亚地区铁路线、公路、管道及其他基础设施的建设和升级。这条21世纪丝绸之路的另一干线将从中国的更北边出发。其中一段计划建造长度为7千公里的高铁把莫斯科与北京连接起来,让时间从原来的6天以上缩短到33个小时左右。

If successful in this “rail offensive,” the Chinese may finally prove correct Mackinder’s assertion that “trans-continental railways are…transmuting the conditions of land-power, and nowhere can they have such effect as in the closed heart-land of Euro-Asia.” Emphasizing the advantages of rail over ship, Mackinder argued that “the continental railway truck may run direct from the exporting factory into the importing warehouse.” In contemporary economic parlance, this is called a seamless transportation system. And China obviously wants to be the designer and the principal hub of an emerging Eurasian connectivity web. Importantly, this continental Eurasian network will largely be out of reach for the United States, whose naval forces command global sea lanes, causing anxiety in Beijing over a possible blockade of China’s trade, still predominantly sea-borne.

如果“铁路攻势”奏效的话,中国的这一举动便印证了麦金德的断言:“跨大陆铁路…正改变着陆上强国的状况,它也只在封闭的欧亚大陆‘心脏地带’才会有这样的效果。”为了强调铁路对水路的优势,麦金德称“陆上铁路货车可直接从出口工厂开到进口仓库”。按当代经济的说法,这叫做无缝运输系统。很显然中国想成为新兴欧亚大陆交通网络的设计师和重要枢纽。欧亚大陆交通网络对中国的重要性还体现在其远离美国海军的控制范围,对仍以海运为主的中国贸易来说,海路被美国封锁的风险是他们不得不担心的问题。

Supplementing China-centered transcontinental rail network are planned oceanic routes emanating from Chinese ports and hugging Eurasian shores. Foremost among them is Maritime Silk Road, traversing the seas of Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The Kra Canal across an isthmus in Southern Thailand, whose construction, funded by Chinese, may begin soon, will draw the Maritime Silk Road closer to China-friendly countries, such as Cambodia, Thailand and Burma, reducing the significance of Malacca Strait controlled by the U.S. Navy. China is also eying the Northern Sea Route, which is passing via the Arctic areas controlled by Moscow, Beijing’s increasingly close “strategic partner.”

作为以中国为中心的跨大陆铁路网的补充,海上航线计划将中国港口与欧亚大陆各海岸紧密联系在一起。其中最重要的一条航线便是海上丝绸之路,线路会经过东南亚和印度洋的海域。开工在即的泰国南部克拉地峡运河,将由中国筹资承建,运河建成后将拉近海上丝绸之路与柬埔寨、泰国及缅甸等对华友好国家的距离,同时还可削弱处于美海军控制的马六甲海峡的重要性。被中国盯上的还有北海航线,这条穿越北极地区的航线处在俄罗斯的控制之下,而中国与俄罗斯的“战略合作伙伴”关系正日益紧密。

In China’s Eurasian vision, economic considerations are intertwined with geo-strategic. Economically, China will benefit from establishing a huge integrated area under its leadership. Strategically, this continental zone of Chinese influence will be largely impregnable to hostile U>S. interventions, should a grave crisis occur in Sino-American relations. The U.S., possessing unrivaled naval capabilities, may well inflict damage upon the maritime margins of China’s geo-economic empire, but it will hardly be able to strike at its terrestrial core centered around Eurasian Heartland.

在中国的欧亚愿景中,经济利益与地缘战略是紧密联系在一起的。经济方面,建立起一个巨大的综合性区域并把它置于自己的领导下,中国将会从中获益。在战略层面上,处在中国影响下的欧亚大陆区域将成为其抵抗美国干涉的一道屏障,避免可能发生在两国间的严重危机。拥有无敌海上军事力量的美国,可以侵扰中国地缘经济帝国的海岸线,但却不太可能打击到它在欧亚大陆“心脏地带”的陆地核心区域。

Russia – China’s Own Canada?

俄罗斯——中国的“加拿大”?

China will not be able to create its Eurasian fortress without collaboration, or at least acquiescence, from the other great Eurasian power – Russia. Although a far cry from the heydays of the Tsarist Empire and the Soviet Union, Russia still controls much of the crucial Heartland areas – as its own territories in northern Eurasia and zones of political influence in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

如果没有另一欧亚强权——俄罗斯的配合或默许,中国将无法建立它的欧亚堡垒。虽然当前国力与沙俄帝国和苏联全盛时期相距甚远,但俄罗斯仍掌控着“心脏地带”的大片关键区域,其中既包括它在北部欧亚大陆的领土,又包括它在中亚和东欧的政治影响力。

It looks increasingly likely that Moscow, despite erstwhile Eurasian ambitions of its own, will not stand in the way of Beijing’s grand designs. Locked in a bitter fight with the West over Ukraine and other issues, Russia has no choice but to move closer toward China. In particular, plunging oil prices and Western sanctions are threatening to ruin Russia’s financial system. Beijing seems ready to come to the rescue. In October 2014, the central banks of the two countries signed a currency swap agreement worth 150 billion yuan ($25 billion), allowing Russia to draw on China’s renminbi in case of need. In December 2014, Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that China was willing to help Russia, if needed. The question is what political and economic strings Beijing is going to attach to any assistance it might be willing to extend to a struggling Russia. The price tag will likely include privileged access to Russia’s natural resources and military technologies, as well as Moscow’s consent to China-led economic schemes in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.

过去俄罗斯也曾对欧亚大陆抱有野心,但就目前看来,它不太可能会阻挠中国的宏伟规划。在乌克兰问题及其他事务上与西方陷入一场苦战时,别无选择的俄罗斯只能倒向中国。油价的骤降和西方的制裁更是让俄罗斯金融体系面临崩溃的危险。中国似乎已经做好出手相助的准备了。2014年10月,中国央行与俄罗斯联邦中央银行签订了规模为1500亿元人民币(250亿美元)的货币互换协议,允许俄罗斯在需要时可以动用中国的人民币。2014年12月,中国外交部长王毅宣布,中国将在必要时给予俄罗斯援助。至于中国在援助困境中挣扎的俄罗斯时会附加哪些政治和经济方面的条件,这还是个疑问。(援助的)代价有可能包括获取俄自然资源和军事技术的特权,还有俄方同意在中亚的前苏联加盟共和国实行中国主导的经济计划。

Even those in Russia’s China-watching community who are quite sympathetic toward Beijing, acknowledge that the new Silk Road is motivated “not only by its future economic benefits, but also geopolitical calculations, hopes to create in Eurasia a ‘growth base’ for a future great Eurasian power.” However, it is far from clear what long-term implications this would have for Russia and whether it would be at all possible for the two great-power Eurasian projects to co-exist peacefully.

即便是比较亲华的俄中国问题观察家们,也承认建设新丝绸之路的动机不仅仅只是为了日后的经济利益,其中还包含着地缘政治考量,中国希望能在欧亚大陆上建立起一个新兴欧亚强权的“成长基地”。这会给俄罗斯带来哪些长远的影响目前尚不清楚,而这两大强权的欧亚大陆计划能否和平共存也还是个未知数。

As Russia’s leading analysts point out, China’s Silk Road initiatives may consume Moscow’s own cherished project of Eurasian Union. According to Dmitri Trenin, “What might be expected . . . is an energy, investment and industrial-technological partnership between China and Russia which will reshape and rebalance Eurasia, whose center of gravity will now move from Moscow to Beijing.”

俄权威分析人士指出,中国积极推动新丝绸之路建设会毁掉俄罗斯自己所中意的欧亚联盟计划。Dmitri Trenin称,“可以预见的是,中俄之间的能源、投资与工业技术合作将实现对欧亚大陆的重塑和再平衡,从今起欧亚大陆的重心将从俄罗斯转移到中国。”

If Russia is lucky it may eventually become China’s own “Canada” – a vast storehouse of natural resources catering for a powerful southern neighbor, while retaining a degree of sovereignty. However, in the worst-case scenario, Russia will end up as a vassal within a Chinese empire. It is striking that, back in 1904 Mackinder anticipated the possible incorporation of Russia into the Chinese domain and the danger that could pose to the West: “Were the Chinese, for instance, organized by the Japanese, to overthrow the Russian Empire and conquer its territory, they might constitute the yellow peril to the world’s freedom just because they would add an oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent…” He was only mistaken about the Japanese. Rather than “organizing” a China-led empire in Eurasia, Tokyo is now trying to prevent an entente between Moscow and Beijing for fear of facing a powerful hostile bloc.

如果幸运的话,俄罗斯最终可能会变成中国的“加拿大”——一个专为强大的南部邻国提供自然资源的大仓库,同时保留一定程度的主权。但最坏的结果也有可能是,俄罗斯最后沦为中华帝国的附庸。令人吃惊的是,早在1904年,麦金德就预见到了俄罗斯被中国吞并的可能性和西方将面临的危险:“举例来说,如果中国人在日本人的组织下推翻俄帝国并入侵其领土,他们就将成为危及世界自由的‘黄祸’,因为他们会为这片大陆上的资源找到一个出海口…”唯一不在他预料之内的就是日本。比起“组建”一个欧亚大陆上的中华帝国,日本现在更害怕面对一个强大的敌对阵营,因此它正想方设法阻挠中俄之间的友好关系。

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      • 是的。蒙古还是独立的好。和毛子有战略空间。。他的资源反正也不可能卖给别人。。花钱的事情都不算是事情

  2. 还有个说10年内中国人均2W美元,20年内人均4W美元?在外国企业大规模撤离中国的现在,先跨越巨大的房产泡沫和中等收入陷阱再说吧。

  3. Po Tato ? 6 hours agoAn open question to all of youWhy every single time China does something it must be bad?Was it China or Japan who attacked the Pearl Harbor?Which country is the only remaining WW2 aggressor that still refuses to apologize for the death, the carnage, and the sufferings of the people of Eastern Asia? Japan or China?Why is it that when China wanting to open up trade-routes with the land-locked countries in the Central Asia, everybody automatically jump up and accuse China of ‘invasion’?In the thousands of years of history of China, had China wanted to invade or conquer its neighbors it could have done so, many times overFrom Korea of the North East to Vietnam / Laos / Burma to the South, to Mongolia to the North, to Afghanistan / Uzbekistan to the North West to India / Nepal in the South East, how many times China played the role as the aggressor?China’s involvement in the Korean war was to help the Koreans to defend against the JapaneseChina’s skirmish against Vietnam not long after the Vietnamese war had ended was to defend itself from Vietnamese aggressions – Vietnam was lobbing bombs across its border with China and people living near the border area had to flee for safetyMany of you may not know it, the one Malaria drug that is still effective in curing the disease is called “Artemisinin” and that drug’s invention has a historical tie with the Vietnam War – Ho Chi Minh seeked help from Zhou En Lai for a cure for Malaria because that disease seriously affected many Vietnamese fighters. Zhou En Lai, being a Malaria victim 40 years prior, understood the severity and set up a secret military project to find a cureThe drug – “Artemisinin” was the resultNow, China never ask for thanks, never ask for repayment, never ask for anything other than peaceful coexistences, but no, the Vietnamese, after getting so much help from the Chinese during their struggles against the Americans in the Vietnam war turned their back against China and became very aggressiveThey (the Vietnamese) first courted the Russians – whom was in no good term with China at that time – and then, the AmericansFacing this kind of turncoats, China kept its calm. For several years, Vietnamese troops opened fire on innocent civilians living across the border, killing and maiming people. They even lob bombs and mortars on border villages, forcing people living at the border area to fleeFor years China had tried very hard to solve the matter via diplomatic means, but to no avail, and the Vietnamese became more and more aggressiveThat was what led to the China-Vietnam skirmishesThe demonization of China is a ploy by the Western world. It’s not only the Americans who are doing that, the Europeans also are doing thatFor example, in 2008, a group of Tibetan protesters storming the Chinese embassy in Katmandu, Nepal, and a scuffle between the Nepalese police and the Tibetan protesters ensued, and pictures of brown-skinned police b*** the Tibetan protesters were takenGermany newspaper, De Spiegel, proudly displayed those pictures on their website and proclaim that they have proofs of the “CHINESE POLICE” b*** the poor TibetansIf you guys don’t like the Chinese, you have the right to stop making friend with the ChineseDon’t go around lobbing false accusations against a people who did you no harm, who never cut off the heads of your fellow countrymen, who never enslave your women as sex slave, who never invade / attack your countryDoing so only showcase you, as the racist问你们个问题。为什么每次中国要做些事情就认为那一定是件坏事呢?是中国还是日本偷袭的珍珠港?二战的侵略国中是谁至今不肯向死难者、东亚大屠殺遇难者和战争受难者道歉的?是日本还是中国?为什么当中国要在中亚内陆国家开辟贸易路线的时候,人们又自动跳出来指责中国“入侵”中亚?在中国数千年的历史中,如果它想入侵或征服邻国,它有大把的机会这么干。从东北的朝鲜到南边的越南、老挝、缅甸,从北边的蒙古到西北边的阿富汗、乌兹别克斯坦,再到东南边的印度、尼泊尔,有多少次中国扮演了侵略者的角色?中国介入朝鲜战争是为了帮助韩国抵御日本。越南战争结束后不久,中国为抵抗侵略而与越南爆发了小规模战争——当时越南向中越边境发射炮弹,边境居民为了安全纷纷逃难。你们很多人可能不知道,至今仍然有效的抗疟疾药物——“青蒿素”,它的发明与越南战争有一定的渊源——因为越南战士受疟疾的严重困扰,胡志明去向周恩来求助治愈的法子。40年前周恩也曾是疟疾的受害者,深知此事的严重性,便设立一个秘密军事项目以寻求治病良方。最后的成果就是“青蒿素”。现在,中国从没要求过谢谢,也不求回报,除了和平共处什么都不要,但还求之不得。越南人在与美国的越南战争里得到了中国这么多的帮助,到头来反咬中国一口,态度还咄咄逼人。他们(越南人)先是讨好当时与中国关系不佳的俄罗斯,后又倒向美国。碰到这样的叛徒,中国依然保持冷静。数年来,越南军队跨过边境开火,致死致残无辜平民。他们甚至还向边境村庄投掷炸弹和迫击炮,迫使边境居民逃离家园。多年来,中国曾努力尝试通过外交手段解决这一问题,但都无济于事,越南还愈发咄咄逼人。这也最终导致了中越冲突。妖魔化中国是西方世界的一个阴谋。不止是美国这么干,欧洲也有份。例如,2008 年的时候,一群XZ示威者冲击尼泊尔首都加德满都的中国大使馆,随后示威者与尼泊尔警察发生了混战,被人拍下了棕色皮肤的警察殴打XZ示威者的照片。德国《明镜》周刊在其网站上上传了这些照片,并宣称已经掌握了“中国警察”殴打可怜藏人的证据。如果你们不喜欢中国人,大可以不跟他们结交。别用些莫须有的罪名去陷害那些没有伤害过你的人,他们没砍过你们同胞的头,没把你们的女人抓去当性.奴,也没侵略/进攻过你们的国家。之所以说这些,就想让那些种族主义者看看自己像个什么样。——————这个真好啊,是兔锅吗

  4. Alexandre Charron-trudel @ Sashimi Boy • 19 hours agowell that would be the intent, wouldn’t it? the allying of as many nations to China’s cause as possible via trade, that is. That wouldn’t be unlike what actually existed before, so long as China doesn’t try to dictate and enforce terms upon those it trades with. Then again, look at the Philippines, Vietnam et al in the South China Sea…那是它的一个意图,不是么?通过贸易将各个国家尽可能的拉拢过来。只要中国不给贸易伙伴制定强制条款,这将与之前的情况有所不同。再看看这些南海国家:菲律宾、越南…

  5. tocharian @ Dr. Malcolm Davis • 8 hours ago“the acme of Chinese cunningness is invading and conquering by infiltrating, stealing and ch***”中国人狡猾的最高境界在于用渗透、偷窃、欺骗等方式来进行入侵和征服。夸得我心里这叫一个舒坦。。。

  6. tocharian @ tteng • 20 hours agoAren’t you a proud American? Why do you care so much about the Chinese and the stupid Russians? Be loyal to the country where you hold your citizenship.Go USA!你难道不是个骄傲的美国人嘛?为什么要这么关心中国人和愚蠢的俄罗斯人?你应该忠于自己的国家。加油,美国!加油。。。汽油还是食用油。。。好吧。。。为了美国的经济复兴。。。俺去沃尔玛刷卡透支买衣服了。。。为了我热爱的国家我豁出去了。。。反正爷没钱还款。。。爱咋咋地。。。

  7. tteng @ tocharian • 20 hours agoBorn in Taiwan, came to the states when I was 14, became a Christian when I was 26, worked in the Silicon Valley for almost 20 yrs. I know enough about myself and the humanity in general, to know I’m nothing (especially about the pride part).我出生在台湾,14岁来到美国,26岁成为基督徒,在硅谷工作了将近20年。我了解自己也知道普遍人性,我对此无所谓(身为美国人的骄傲)。26——14=12。。。十二年就给洗干净儿的了。。。

  8. tocharian @ tteng • 20 hours agoThe USA has been a good country for all immigrants, especially for the hard-working Chinese, and I am sure all immigrants who came to live and prosper in this Great “Land of the Free and Home of the Brave” (way better than despotic dysfunctional countries like China or Russia!) are indeed very grateful to have this priceless opportunity to become American citizens. I envy the Americans ( but maybe not “especially about the pride part” LOL)一直以来,对所有移民特别是勤劳的中国人来说,美国都是一个很棒的国家。我确定所有来到这片伟大“自由之地”和“勇士之家”(比中国和俄罗斯这样的暴乱国家好多了!)定居和发家的人们都会为有机会成为美国公民而无比感激。我真羡慕美国人(但不一定包括“身为美国人的骄傲”,哈哈)。必须的。。。傻子才愿意当印第安国人挨美国人扫射。。。 哦。。。印第安人也是美国人啊。。。啥时候当美国人的。。。 哦。。。被屠杀后还活着的啊。。。好吧。。。当个美国人原来坐等侵略屠杀就行啊。。。美国人快来屠杀俺们吧。。。俺也要当美国人。。。当然。。。如果俺还有命活的话。。。

  9. Rafasa Arandas • 11 hours agoI honestly think it very foolish for Russia to challenge the West over Ukraine while in the East, China’s power and influence threatens to eclipse it more and more with each passing day. What if China does a Crimea and tries to ‘reclaim’ Mongolia? What will Russia do then?我真的觉得俄罗斯很蠢,在乌克兰问题上跟西方叫板,在东边中国的实力和影响力正一天天地超过它。如果中国想效仿克里米亚那样“收回”蒙古呢?俄罗斯又该怎么办?对不起。。。我们对大荒草地和智商低下的人口没兴趣。。。只要把资源便宜卖给我们就行。。。

    • 没兴趣,中央高层真没兴趣才怪,只不过现今时代无法用打仗来实现这一切罢了。从全球化的情况来看,世界各国人民最终都是要融合的,种族主义分子迟早都得看到这种事实。即便不统一世界各类人种也会融合。美国已经成为种族融炉,将来其它世界也难例外。我个人认为,促成世界最终统一的力量美国不行,应该最终还得由中国去实现。只看将来的统一到底是类似古代朝贡模式还是现代港澳模式。

      • 俺只能说你真天真可爱。。。美国是熔炉。。。是啊。。。你最好得祈祷你是白皮。。。如果不是。。。那你就祈祷遇到的警察今天心情不错。。。当然。。。即使你俩样都有也要祈祷。。。别遇上拿枪出来做事儿的黑哥们。。。如果这个你都能避开。。。继续祈祷吧。。。上街别遇上背高压锅的MSL。。。

  10. ben lu • 2 hours agoSince China has never established an Eurasia empire before, perhaps it should consider. After all, China is already treated as hegemonic. Why not take the prize since the cost is already billed at least partially. Of course I am just joking.之前中国从未建立过一个欧亚帝国,现在可以考虑一下了。毕竟,中国已经被视一方霸权了。中国何不直接坐实了,反正要付出的一些代价都已经公诸于众了。当然我只是在开玩笑。我们愿意当出气筒,受气包。。。你们咋捏股都行。。。不用管俺的感受。。。当然俺也只是在开玩笑。。。

  11. jkjhfvjvj • 10 hours agonobody cares for America and their lies and propaganda no more…已经没人会再去关心美国以及他们的谎言和宣传了…这是赤果果的攻击伟大的皿煮灯塔国。。。CIA还不快去查他家水表。。。

  12. TC目前也只是一个发展中 国家和区域大国而已,没有说的那么牛逼,等把邓老说的一百年发展发展到家,完成中等发展国家的人均GDP的时候,再说威胁不威胁吧

  13. 人类历史已经证明没有永远的霸主,永远的强国。谁都逃不过分久必合,盛极必衰的轮回和魔咒。中国人应该共同努力,使自己有幸生活在强大、和平、富强的历史时间点上,结果不可改变,但过程和进度可以改写,通过大家的努力才可以做到。如果不敬畏历史规律,如果狂妄自负,等待的结果只有备受战争涂炭,甚至沦为亡国奴。

    • 让世界最终统一不就行了。难道你一点都不了解中国的先秦文明吗?将来的世界哪还有什么种族之类什么的,分裂了也全都是地球人。

      • 但愿你的美好愿望有一天能成真,这样就没有了领土之争,可是这么大的领土、这么多的不同的人,该由谁来当领袖呢?哈哈,真是头痛啊。

  14. 又是历史类文章,但出口还是政治,其实现在文科都是颁发哲学头衔,然后德语区文科都是以历史学作为核心建构起来,什么艺术史,音乐史,地缘政治史,16世纪欧洲扩张史等等等等。往后搞这个媒体工作的,最好招一名历史专业的硕士来把关,最好是国际史方向,最次也得是西域史,丝绸之路研究这块的,或者东亚史,日韩台湾方向的。再远点的,我估计国内史学研究还没那么详细和宽泛,也无法提供大量史学生走向社会。这种史学类的文章,就是引骂战来的,说白了吧。你不回他他在揶揄你,你回他吧你就输一半了,他能把你拉到跟他一个档次,然后用他丰富的经验和脑补,把你干趴下。这就是为什么我现在尽量不回这种文章,什么皇汉啊,满洲啊,百越啊五花八门的民族论,其实这些东西有什么意义呢?最早要往前倒,大家都是非洲人,都住在树上,居然有人就找成吉思汗当祖先?那成吉思汗的祖先呢?石头缝里蹦出来的?而且,蒙古草原文明从一开始就是亚欧游牧文明,半欧半亚,跟俄国类似,跟今天的南方汉人文化差异还大。——————————————好了,言归正川,我又要开始写史了。让我们数一下古今欧亚帝国有几个?我目前记忆中是一个没有,勉强有一个。最早,远古就不算了。然后比较靠谱的第一个帝国应该是塞尔维亚人主导的亚历山大大帝帝国,15年分裂成为3个王朝,这个是公认的第一个帝国,其中一个邦国还入侵了印度次大陆,另一个成为了埃及的托勒密王朝,改变了埃及史和文化走向,使得埃及成为罗马文化里的一部分,所以今天埃及人自视自己是欧洲国家,这个底气是从这出来的。在这之前应该有个安达卢西亚文明,不过不算欧亚帝国了。第二个就是罗马帝国和波斯帝国了,也就是所谓的帕提亚帝国和萨珊帝国,以及集成东罗马君士坦丁的拜占庭帝国。拜占庭这个词有中东的口味,所以西罗马继承者始终有点低看拜占庭。2者教会在中世纪扮演角色也大相径庭,拜占庭帝国有点类似今天的中国,某种程度上。第三个,就是伊斯兰帝国了,先知穆罕穆德在罗马帝国倒塌的废墟中,依靠一个麦地那最富有寡妇的资助,从一个商人摇身一变成为了最后的先知,其身后的追随者帮助他建立了一个曾经一度强大精干的骑兵帝国,并且与十字军国家展开了激烈的竞争,长达300年之久。当然了,中间经历了一次蒙古帝国的入侵和打断,不过很快就被消化掉了。十字军东征,大多时间不是在2教互砍,而是双方在拓展各自一个势力主导下的地盘,换句话说,就是他们在打外战之前打了激烈的内战。第四,就是欧洲被奥托曼土耳其帝国苏丹军队压得喘不过气了,逼迫他地理大发现,然后宗教改革,西方近代哲学和自然科学开始得到重视,然后就是新式枪械,军队,操练,医院体系和工厂逐步出现。这一切推出了英格兰帝国,尤其维多利亚时代的大不列颠帝国。我个人觉得,大英帝国是世界上唯一一个可以公认欧亚帝国的国家。美国2012年曾经出过一个报道,说英国人侵略了90%的国家,主导了世界75%的人口,今天的美国连20%都不到,自愧不如。他这个说法基本正确吧。当然了,大英帝国全盛时期也是相当短暂,基本上就是东印度和西印度公司最繁荣的那几年。第五,苏联帝国,89年拐点之前,这是欧洲概念,东欧,中东,北非,黑非,甚至越南,印度全都是苏联的势力范围,实际上这个资本主义国家在欧亚大陆边缘地带快站不住脚了,所以尼克松才访华,让中国替他挡一挡,美国那一轮打完越战亏得太大,底气不足了才找的中国。不过,苏联影响力虽强,但终究只是代理人战争,他跟他的盟友各取所需,这个算不算主导中东北非国家还很难说。—————————————————————–换句话说,苏联是否算是欧亚帝国还值得探讨。她跟美国类似,都是可以defeat但是不能capture,这样的话,算作公认的欧亚帝国有点牵强。所以推导出,今天的美国也不是欧亚帝国,虽然他世界主导力很强。但他算作世界帝国吧,毕竟他金融控制力很强,而且他搞了个体系,和不少规则。====================================中国从来不是欧亚帝国,倒是天然的东亚帝国,但是很少走出过东亚范围。蒙古帝国虽然算欧亚帝国,但是分裂的也很快,蒙哥战死四川之后就分裂了,然后几个兄弟内战就开始了。所以能不能视为一个强大的统一的帝国,也是个问题。所谓的蒙古帝国兴盛,主要还是占了十字军和伊斯兰之间以及汉金辽之间混战的便宜,所以他对其他文明影响不大,基本上来的也快去的也快,跟亚历山大帝国有点相似。印度帝国,其实说白了都是穆斯林建立的帝国。一个德里苏丹国,另一个巴布尔瘸子建立的莫卧儿王朝,即便如此也没有全部统一印度次大陆,可见印度这地方穷山恶水啊。所以说,印度中世纪史应该算作伊斯兰史里一部分,也就是印度教和印度文明被打断的时代。后来的英国,帮助印度教徒建立了自己的国家,也就是今天的这个印度共和国。从历史上来看,印度教文明不是个强大的帝国,也很难想象他未来会一枝独秀。

    • 以上那些帝国吧。塞尔维亚的亚历山大就不说了,一般认为阿契美尼德王朝才是第一个世界性大帝国——绝对比你所说的萨珊王朝和安息帝国强大;拜占庭源自希腊语,中东口味就算了,法国人瞧不上英国人,跟苏格兰长裙没关系;伊斯兰帝国的说法挺莫名的;印度历史上最强大的三个王朝中,只有莫卧儿帝国是回教,德里苏丹国离门槛还远;地理大发现是那些与奥斯曼帝国没啥冲突的国家发起的,他们气喘得挺顺

    • 你大概对历史上的某些事实没去充分研究过。可能某些事就是冥冥之中有股神秘的力量可以延续到后来。你可知道南宋灭亡时最后的小股力量在哪消失的?伶仃洋正是在香港和澳门之间。你可知道明朝消失的小股力量实际在哪?不是西南那支,而是台湾郑氏集团那支。这样就能想明白为什么港澳和台湾在近代会一度游离于中国之外了吧。

    • 你可发现当年被蒙古帝国侵占过的国家,中国,俄罗斯,伊朗在现代这三国的政府都一度是反美国的。而世界其它地区虽然民间也有反美现象,但却并不严重。你能想通其中的联系了吗?

  15. 说句实话,我非常想见到的,人民币上的四种少民文字应该更改为藏文,蒙古文,维文,俄文。壮文跟汉语方言的相似性完全没必要有。我希望在未来五十年内,上合组织成员国都只包括中俄,中亚国家和外蒙古,最多再加上不丹。不希望上合组织成员国有印度这个国家参与。

    • 非常惊喜的看到俄罗斯在欧洲受到打压。只要中俄只谈合作,而不干涉俄罗斯西部的矛盾是最好的选择。本来中俄之所以能交好就都是因为在国际社会缺少友邦,从同时发生的俄乌关系跟中缅关系的问题来看,俄罗斯做了错误的选择,中国正在做正确的选择。俄的衰落和最终成为中国的跟班只会是时间问题。

  16. Alexandre Charron-trudel @ Sashimi Boy ? 19 hours agowell that would be the intent, wouldn’t it? the allying of as many nations to China’s cause as possible via trade, that is. That wouldn’t be unlike what actually existed before, so long as China doesn’t try to dictate and enforce terms upon those it trades with. Then again, look at the Philippines, Vietnam et al in the South China Sea…那是它的一个意图,不是么?通过贸易将各个国家尽可能的拉拢过来。只要中国不给贸易伙伴制定强制条款,这将与之前的情况有所不同。再看看这些南海国家:菲律宾、越南…

  17. tocharian @ Dr. Malcolm Davis ? 8 hours ago“the acme of Chinese cunningness is invading and conquering by infiltrating, stealing and ch***”中国人狡猾的最高境界在于用渗透、偷窃、欺骗等方式来进行入侵和征服。夸得我心里这叫一个舒坦。。。

  18. tocharian @ tteng ? 20 hours agoAren’t you a proud American? Why do you care so much about the Chinese and the stupid Russians? Be loyal to the country where you hold your citizenship.Go USA!你难道不是个骄傲的美国人嘛?为什么要这么关心中国人和愚蠢的俄罗斯人?你应该忠于自己的国家。加油,美国!加油。。。汽油还是食用油。。。好吧。。。为了美国的经济复兴。。。俺去沃尔玛刷卡透支买衣服了。。。为了我热爱的国家我豁出去了。。。反正爷没钱还款。。。爱咋咋地。。。

  19. tteng @ tocharian ? 20 hours agoBorn in Taiwan, came to the states when I was 14, became a Christian when I was 26, worked in the Silicon Valley for almost 20 yrs. I know enough about myself and the humanity in general, to know I’m nothing (especially about the pride part).我出生在台湾,14岁来到美国,26岁成为基督徒,在硅谷工作了将近20年。我了解自己也知道普遍人性,我对此无所谓(身为美国人的骄傲)。26——14=12。。。十二年就给洗干净儿的了。。。

  20. tocharian @ tteng ? 20 hours agoThe USA has been a good country for all immigrants, especially for the hard-working Chinese, and I am sure all immigrants who came to live and prosper in this Great “Land of the Free and Home of the Brave” (way better than despotic dysfunctional countries like China or Russia!) are indeed very grateful to have this priceless opportunity to become American citizens. I envy the Americans ( but maybe not “especially about the pride part” LOL)一直以来,对所有移民特别是勤劳的中国人来说,美国都是一个很棒的国家。我确定所有来到这片伟大“自由之地”和“勇士之家”(比中国和俄罗斯这样的暴乱国家好多了!)定居和发家的人们都会为有机会成为美国公民而无比感激。我真羡慕美国人(但不一定包括“身为美国人的骄傲”,哈哈)。必须的。。。傻子才愿意当印第安国人挨美国人扫射。。。 哦。。。印第安人也是美国人啊。。。啥时候当美国人的。。。 哦。。。被屠杀后还活着的啊。。。好吧。。。当个美国人原来坐等侵略屠杀就行啊。。。美国人快来屠杀俺们吧。。。俺也要当美国人。。。当然。。。如果俺还有命活的话。。。

  21. Rafasa Arandas ? 11 hours agoI honestly think it very foolish for Russia to challenge the West over Ukraine while in the East, China’s power and influence threatens to eclipse it more and more with each passing day. What if China does a Crimea and tries to ‘reclaim’ Mongolia? What will Russia do then?我真的觉得俄罗斯很蠢,在乌克兰问题上跟西方叫板,在东边中国的实力和影响力正一天天地超过它。如果中国想效仿克里米亚那样“收回”蒙古呢?俄罗斯又该怎么办?对不起。。。我们对大荒草地和智商低下的人口没兴趣。。。只要把资源便宜卖给我们就行。。。

  22. ben lu ? 2 hours agoSince China has never established an Eurasia empire before, perhaps it should consider. After all, China is already treated as hegemonic. Why not take the prize since the cost is already billed at least partially. Of course I am just joking.之前中国从未建立过一个欧亚帝国,现在可以考虑一下了。毕竟,中国已经被视一方霸权了。中国何不直接坐实了,反正要付出的一些代价都已经公诸于众了。当然我只是在开玩笑。我们愿意当出气筒,受气包。。。你们咋捏股都行。。。不用管俺的感受。。。当然俺也只是在开玩笑。。。

  23. jkjhfvjvj ? 10 hours agonobody cares for America and their lies and propaganda no more…已经没人会再去关心美国以及他们的谎言和宣传了…这是赤果果的攻击伟大的皿煮灯塔国。。。CIA还不快去查他家水表。。。

  24. 顶层设计3.0版本,通过西方的理解就能成为欧亚帝国3.0版,江时代喜好下大棋,喊大口号,不知“崛起”是谁喊出来的,吓的别人睡眠失调,整个世界没人希望别人崛起,却都期待别人平庸而自已强大,因此个人认为中国做事最好不要太张扬,免得招来他人的疾恨和捣蛋,大众商品是如此,外建工程是如此,能源买卖是如此,高铁输出也是如此,做事儿还是低调的为好啊!