三泰虎

印度教给了我们什么?

过去二十年,世界最重要的趋势就是中国的崛起,中国的崛起改变了世界的经济、政治、文化以及地缘政治格局。一旦印度的经济解锁,印度独一无二的人口将在以后二十年的印度崛起中起至关重要的作用。对印度和世界来说,也是即将到来的大选的风险。印度会发挥它的潜力吗?许多外国观察家,特别是西方商务人士对印度的现状绝望。印度仅仅是野心太大,改革步伐却缓慢,所有事情都被无力的政策拖入泥潭。不幸的是这是事实。不过我们最近的特别报告会给你呈现一个动态的印度。

译者:企业级
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-258764-1-1.html
外文:http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2013/12/28/what-india-could-teach-the-world/


20130124191147312

By Fareed Zakaria

The most important global trend of the last twenty years has been the rise of China, which has changed economics, politics, culture and geo-politics around the world. Were India to unlock its economy, its demographics alone would ensure that its rise would be the defining trend of the next twenty years. That is what’s at stake – for India and the world – in its upcoming national elections.

过去二十年,世界最重要的趋势就是中国的崛起,中国的崛起改变了世界的经济、政治、文化以及地缘政治格局。

一旦印度的经济解锁,印度独一无二的人口将在以后二十年的印度崛起中起至关重要的作用。对印度和世界来说,也是即将到来的大选的风险。

Will India finally live up to its potential? Many foreign observers, particularly Western businesspeople, look at India today and despair. The country simply cannot reform at the pace needed to fulfill its ambitions. Everything gets mired in political paralysis.

印度会发挥它的潜力吗?许多外国观察家,特别是西方商务人士对印度的现状绝望。印度仅仅是野心太大,改革步伐却缓慢,所有事情都被无力的政策拖入泥潭。

This is true and unfortunate. But the India we show you in our special report this Sunday is a moving picture not a snapshot. I left India thirty years ago, but have visited it every year since, and the pictures have gotten brighter, more dynamic and more hopeful. Remember, the country’s economy might be sluggish now, but it has grown steadily for the last 15 years, faster than any large economy except China.

不幸的是这是事实。不过我们最近的特别报告会给你呈现一个动态的印度。我三十年前离开印度,但每年回去一次,每次拍的照片都更光明更有活力和希望。

记住,虽然印度现在的经济萧条,可在过去十五年里,印度的经济稳固增长,比其他大经济体好的多,除了中国。

In states as disparate as Gujarat, Odisha, and Bihar, governments are aggressively promoting economic reforms.

印度政府在迥异的古吉拉特、奥里萨邦、比哈尔邦强硬手段地推行经济改革。

This is not simply a story about one person – Narendra Modi, the controversial chief minister of Gujarat. That state of 60 million people has grown almost as fast as China for two decades – and with seven chief ministers at the helm, not just Modi.

这不简简单单是一个人—穆迪的功劳,充满争议的古吉拉特邦的首长。这个6000万人口的邦在过去二十年有着媲美中国的发展—在七位首长的领导下,不仅仅是穆迪一人。

Other states are growing fast as well. Twenty years of economic growth have transformed the country. The Indian middle class now numbers more than 250 million, while technology is giving the new middle class the power to make their voices heard. Nearly three-quarters of the population has mobile phones. Texting and similar methods have now become a routine way to petition government, organize protests, and raise awareness.

其他邦的发展也不慢,二十年的经济成长改变了国家的面貌。印度的中产阶级已经超过2.5亿,并且科技给了新的中产阶级发声的力量。
近四分之三的人有手机,通过短信或者类似的方式进行请愿、组织抗议yx、筹集意见已经深入人们的生活。

India will never be a China, a country where the population is homogeneous and where a ruling elite directs the nation’s economic and political development. In China, the great question is whether the new president, Xi Jinping, is a reformer – he will need to order change, top-down, for that country.

虽然人口差不多,但是印度永远不会像中国一样:统治精英们主导经济、政策和政府。

在中国,最大的问题是新主席-Xi是否是改革者,他需要自上而下层次改革。

In India, the questions are different: are Indians reformers? Can millions of people mobilize and petition and clamor for change? Can they persist in a way that makes reform inevitable? That is the only way change will come in a big, open, raucous democracy like India. And when that change comes, it is likely to be more integrated into the fabric of the country and thus more durable.

在印度,问题却不一样:印度人民是改革者吗?

成千上万人会组织请愿呼吁改革吗?他们会坚定地走在改革道路上吗?这可是拥有巨大、开放、喧闹民主的印度迎接改革的唯一途径了。
当改革实现的时候,可能(比中国)更综合地整合进国家结构中,因此也更稳固。

And were India to succeed, it could have enduring lessons for the world. China is the rare case of an efficient, pro-growth one party state, a model that is rare in history and difficult to emulate. India is a big, messy, diverse democracy. If it can make the hard choices that ensure growth and progress, then many, many countries around the world can find their own paths to success.

并且当印度成功时,将会给世界一个长久持续的课程。中国是一个罕见的高效率、倾向于经济增长的一党制国家,历史上都罕见的特例,且难于效仿。印度则是一个巨大的、杂乱的和充满多样性的民主国家。如果印度能搞定利于发展和进步的艰难的选择,那么世界上许许多多的国家都能找到属于自己的成功之路。

Frankly, if India’s dysfunctional democracy can deliver, well, there might even be some lessons there for Washington, DC.

坦白来讲,如果印度失调的民主能切实履行,或许美国也能从中学到点什么。

评论翻译:



Rahul says:
December 28, 2013 at 7:59 pm
What India needs massive investment in infrastructure both commercial and social enterprise, that alone is like Trillion dollars. Obiviously this will require atleast another 1 decade if the government can focus on it on lines similar like China, than we will be talking.
There is nothing fantastic about Indian Democracy and nothing overtly evil about Chinese communists. The skill of the cat is catching the mice and if Indian democracy cannot deliver better living standards to its citizens than its unfortunate.
As of now China is too far ahead of India but the same China was with India in 1970s so nothing is impossible, if India can get its act together, IF that is !!

印度需要的是巨大的基础设施的投资,包括国企和私企的,光这一项就是上万亿美金。印度政府即使像中国这样重视的话,显然也需要至少十年时间完成,然后再说其他的。

印度的民主并不神奇,中国的共产也并非公然作恶。无论白猫黑猫,抓住老鼠就是好猫—如果印度不能给人民提供更好的生活条件,那就是失败的。

 
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Reply
Daniel Daronda says:
December 28, 2013 at 8:13 pm
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride………… meanwhile, innocent people in a train burn to death in Anantapur……

如果愿望是马儿,乞丐也能骑。
话说Anantapur的火车烧死了不少无辜的人。(指最近印度火车着火事故)

 
Reply
KK says:
December 28, 2013 at 8:23 pm
And nothing of this sort happens in the US or in any other country? Does’nt your country fought a worst civil war ever? Did’nt you have wishes and then worked towards achieving those? Yes, if wishes were horses, every beggar will ride one, and we are seeing that today in the developed world, how you are riding your horses, that you wished for. Just because you could write a few good sentences does not make you more developed. A developed country will have developed brains and not witty worthless ones!

这种事哪国不发生?你的国家难道没发生过内战?你难道不为你梦想的东西奋斗?没错,如果愿望是马儿,所有乞丐都能骑。我们现在可以从发达国家看到,人们是怎样为愿望努力的。你写的美文不能使你发达,发达国家靠的是头脑,而不是没用的逗比。

 
ExaltedMan says:
December 29, 2013 at 1:49 am
Have you ever counted the number of “innocent” people behind bar falsely? I am sure it may not have occurred to you?

你是不是数错了,把犯人也算作“无辜的人”了?(译注:不明所以)

 
Amar says:
December 29, 2013 at 4:26 am
all because of an italian’s management, and high interest rate credit from imf and/or world bank.

都是因为意大利人(译注:指英迪拉还是辛格?)的管理太差,还有imf和世界银行贷款的利率太高。

 
Rahul says:
December 29, 2013 at 7:30 am
Daniel all the ills you have mentioned are exiting, they happen because of lack of social sensitivity, disregard to laws by both public and officials. I think conducting a fair election at a massive scale is NOT measure of success when after 65 years of independence we are still a develping country.
To say that the foreigners looted us a lame excuse my fellow country men give. The fact is even now millions have been looted by our own people, therefore stopping the development at many levels causing the whole chain reaction.
Untill the people of India start shouting in one voice, i.e. focus on governance, these so called wishes are going to remain wishes unfortnately. I hope my fellow country men start taking building of India seriously and not fall for false promise of granduers of democracy.
India was never a full autocracy in its 5000 years or beyond. It was always called as “Gana-Ragya”, people’s rule, Pradhan Mantri (Pime Minister) was always present in the courts, the King was NOT involved in day to day ruling. People will disagree on this but as i have said earlier, why are we debating on the colour of CAT when the Indian CAT is not catching its mice while the Chinese has done it long ago !!!

回复第二条评论)你所提的那些症结确实存在,因为社会冷漠、公众和官员对于法律的忽视。
我认为,举行一个巨大规模的公平选举不能算作成功的标准,我们独立了65年却还是发展中国家。
我的印度同胞们总是说外国人掠夺我们,这真是一个糟糕的借口。事实上现在我们数亿人是被自己人掠夺,因此各种发展停滞,造成非常混乱的后果。
除非我们印度人团结起来,即重视管理,不然这些愿望也只不过是愿望而已。
我希望我的印度同胞们着手于认真建设国家而不是落入民主壮丽的诺言陷阱中。5000年的历史中,印度从来不是典型的独裁国家,是一种叫Gana-Ragya的人民政权,Pradhan Mantri(即首相)通常主持法庭,国王不参与日常事务。
有人可能不同意我的话,但就像我以前说的,为什么我们要纠结猫的颜色?印度的猫不抓老鼠,而中国的猫早就这样干了!

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