从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

美媒:不,印度并不像中国那样发展

2015-02-16 10:46 115个评论 字号:

印度人欣喜若狂。根据本周早些时候公布的修订版GDP,印度将在3月份 扩大GDP7.4%,对比其竞争对手中国。从生产到贸易到贸易投资,许多指标似乎都表明这个国家的经济正在走出谷底。中央银行家Raghuram Rajan对修订后的数值表示疑惑。对于乐观者来说,印度的经济再次达到了新兴经济体的圣杯——中国式增长。印度当然也曾有过如此辉煌。也有许多其他国家也如是,例如巴西、土耳其,再到小小的斯里兰卡。他们都曾经在某个时间点到达过经济增长率8%的高度,使得外界对其经济增长空间的预期上涨,正如30多年来推动中国增长的一样。

译者:Sevenyeah
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-335522-1-1.html
外文:http://www.bloombergview.com/art … t-rival-china-s-yet

6

INDIA’S FACTORIES ARE MUCH LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN THE MAINLAND’S.

印度的工厂并不像大陆的那样多产

SOURCE: INDIAPICTURES/GETTY IMAGES

India bulls are ecstatic. According to revised gross domestic product numbers released earlier this week, the country will expand 7.4 percent in the year through March — on par with rival China. Never mind that most other indicators — from manufacturing to trade to corporate investment — seem to show that the economy is at best bottoming out, or that central banker Raghuram Rajan has himself expressed puzzlement over the revised figures. For optimists, India has once again reached that holy grail of emerging economies: “China-like” growth.

印度人欣喜若狂。根据本周早些时候公布的修订版GDP,印度将在3月份扩大GDP7.4%,对比其竞争对手中国。从生产到贸易到贸易投资,许多指标似乎都表明这个国家的经济正在走出谷底。中央银行家Raghuram Rajan对修订后的数值表示疑惑。对于乐观者来说,印度的经济再次达到了新兴经济体的圣杯——中国式增长。

India has been here before, of course. So have dozens of other countries, from Brazil to Turkey to tiny Sri Lanka. At one point or another, all have posted growth rates above 8 percent, leading to predictions of a liftoff like the one that’s powered China for more than three decades. In most cases, those dreams have fizzled out within a couple years. Weak fundamentals, irrational investor exuberance and in some cases, credit or commodity busts quickly puncture fantasies of global dominance. By contrast, while its economy has begun to slow, China has grown an average of 8.5 percent for the last five years. Its Gini coefficient, a measure of a nation’s rich-poor gap, has improved in each of them.

印度当然也曾有过如此辉煌。也有许多其他国家也如是,例如巴西、土耳其,再到小小的斯里兰卡。他们都曾经在某个时间点到达过经济增长率8%的高度,使得外界对其经济增长空间的预期上涨,正如30多年来推动中国增长的一样。不过大部分情况下,这些美梦都在几年后破灭了。基本面疲弱,投资者非理性繁荣和在某些情况下,信贷或大宗商品泡沫,这些都快速刺穿了其企图占据全球主导地位的幻想。相反地,正在许多经济体的增长速度放缓之时,中国却在过去5年保持了平均增长速度8.5%的好成绩。基尼系数,一个衡量国家贫富差距的指标,也有所改善。

Ironically, achieving China-like growth is often the surest way to lose it. Leaders fall prey to hubris and complacency, hyping all the factors that supposedly guarantee a long run at the top: young populations, abundant resources, the unwavering affection of investors. That overconfidence fosters drift and bad policy. Remember, during its first term, India’s previous Congress-led government also topped 8 percent growth. During its second, it focused on sharing the wealth through huge transfer programs rather than opening India to foreign investment, reducing red tape and deregulating fossilized industries. Growth, according the old formulas, slid below five percent.

充满讽刺的,达到中国式增长就意味着要失去它。领导人的骄傲和自满,宣称所有的因素都可以保证经济高速发展:年轻人口,充足的资源,投资者们坚定不移的信念。这些过度自信往往引发不良政策。不要忘记,国大党领导的印度政府第一季度时也曾经到达过8%的增长率。但是到第二季度,印度政府专注于通过项目共享财富,而不再努力开放对外投资、减少繁文缛节和石化企业。增长率,根据老公式,已经跌至了5%。

Officials from New Delhi to Manila should be learning from China not just how to achieve high growth, but more importantly, how to sustain it. The mainland economy faces huge challenges of its own, of course. President Xi Jinping must shift growth engines away from exports and overinvestment toward services, as well as clean up Beijing’s notoriously corrupt political machine. But China has gotten right many of the elements critical to raising the quality of growth. Among them: running a current-account surplus, beating inflation, boosting productivity and taming politics.

印度官员们最应该向中国学习的,不是如何达到高增长,而是如何保持它。大陆经济也必须面对许多挑战。Xi必须转变出口导向经济和过度投资,发展服务业,同时也清理一下臭名昭著的腐败的政治机器。但是中国在改善经济质量的许多重要方面都做出了正确的选择。例如:维持盈余,打击通货膨胀,提高生产以及改善政治。

 

China proves, for example, that it’s best for an emerging economy to be a net exporter of capital. India’s chronic deficits almost dragged the economy into a full-blown debt crisis in 2013. A more balanced set of government books would shield the economy from market turbulence should Europe crash or Federal Reserve rate hikes unnerve investors. Also, by moving surplus cash into financial assets of developed nations, China helps lower interest rates from Washington to Frankfurt and empowers Western consumers to buy more Chinese goods and create more Chinese jobs.

中国证明了一点,一个新兴经济体最好是一个资本净出口国。2013年,印度的长期赤字几乎使国家陷入全面的债务危机。一个更加平衡的政府财政支出有助于保护经济免受政府动荡,以及欧洲崩溃或美联储升息给投资者带来的恐慌。另外,中国将资金盈余转移到发达国家的金融资产,中国帮助华盛顿到法兰克福的许多国家降低利率,同时也促使西方消费者更多地购买中国产品、帮助中国创造更多工作岗位。

India must do better at attacking inflation that remains six times higher than China’s 0.8 percent rate. Chronic inflation means higher borrowing costs, reduced economic efficiency and greater hardship for the nation’s poor. Most of India’s price pressures derive from the supply side, which limits Rajan’s ability to lower rates. It’s up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attack the graft, bureaucratic inefficiencies, overlapping tax regimes and crumbling infrastructure that shackles India with high costs, even as most other nations in the region fret over the threat of deflation. Simply integrating India’s labyrinthine food markets would improve the lives of hundreds of millions of struggling households.

印度必须学会如何更好地应对通货膨胀,印度的通货膨胀率曾经6次高于中国的0.8%。长期的通货膨胀意味着更高的借贷资本,降低经济效率,同时也使得国家穷人们的生活更加困难。印度的物价压力主要来源于供应方面,这就限制了银行家降低利率的能力。印度总理莫迪应该治理腐败、官僚低效、层层叠加的税制、摇摇欲坠的基础设施,这都使得印度面临高成本威胁,也使得该地区的其他国家担心通货紧缩。简单地整治一下印度迷宫般的食品市场就有助于改善许多陷入困境的家庭。

Raising productivity would both help lower inflation and improve India’s standing as a manufacturing hub. As of 2014, India’s working-age population was more than 800 million — analogous to China’s in 1993. And estimates have it swelling by about 200 million over the next two decades. But China’s manufacturing floors are about 1.6 times more productive than India’s. Modi needs to boost investments in education and new technology and rework archaic labor laws if India is to narrow the gap. Otherwise, the country will undershoot in inward investment and fail to create decent jobs for all those new workers.

提高生产率有助于同时缓解印度的通货膨胀、改善印度作为生产中枢的地位。2014,印度的工作年龄人口高达8亿,类似于1993年的中国。预计称在未来的20年有可能膨胀2亿。但是中国的工作人口的生产效率比印度高1.6倍。莫迪必须要加强在教育、新技术和劳动法方面的投资,如果他想要缩小与中国的差距的话。否则,印度就将止步于内部投资,并且无法为新型人才提供合适岗位。

Finally, while I’m not joining the chorus of those who think India would benefit from a more authoritarian, “China-like” political system, greater clarity and predictability from the government would help Modi’s sales pitch. The government’s scattershot policy decisions over the last decade — imposing retroactive taxes on foreign companies, scuttling a World Trade Organization deal, repeatedly failing to implement reform pledges — continue to hover over the economy in 2015. Until they’re convinced Modi’s reforms will stick, investors will hesitate to jump into India.

最后,我不想加入那些千篇一律的说法,认为印度会受益于权威的“中国式”政治体制,我认为印度政府更大的透明度和可预测性有助于帮助莫迪推动经济。印度政府过去十年漫无目的的决策:实施追溯征税外国公司,逃避世界贸易组织协议,多次未能实现改革的承诺,使得印度经济在2015年徘徊。除非莫迪的改革继续坚持下去,否则投资者们将会犹豫是否将资本投入印度。

Indeed, as even the top bureaucrat at India’s Statistics Ministry has noted, the new figures don’t change the underlying economic reality for India. The government’s fiscal position remains strained; companies are too indebted to invest; banks are saddled with bad loans. No nation can revise its way into China’s orbit. If India wants to replicate the mainland’s success, it needs to act more “China-like,” too.

事实上,正如印度统计部门高级官员所言,新数据不能够改变潜在的印度经济事实。政府的财政状况仍然紧张,公司负债投资,银行背负不良贷款。没有一个国家可以修正自己进入中国轨道。如果印度想要复制中国的成功,他们需要学习更多的“中国做法”。

评论翻译

sonicjoy2002 • 20 hours ago +17
India has huge potential like a teenager with so much to learn so many choices to make, yet also like being a teenager, there are traps to avoid, countless mistakes to make before getting where China is today. And don’t forget that China was and still is growing stronger against all odds and attacks from the West while India has always been the beloved kid receiving all praises and helps to get where it is today. You have to take that into account.

印度有很大的发展潜力,就像一个尚有许多需要学习的青年一般。也正因为印度还是青年,所以还需要避免很多陷阱和错误,才能够到达今天中国所在的位置。不要忘了,中国在西方设置的各种障碍之下仍然成长着,而印度已经是像宠儿一般获得各种鼓励和帮助到达今天的位置。你必须把这些考虑在内。

 

Billy Tea • 21 hours ago +10
I hope they don’t grow like China. China’s growth is investment driven, which drives structural problems like oversupply and overcapacity. this normally results in a correction like Japan in 1991 and Korea in the 1970s. Indias growth is consumption lead, which is less exciting but more sustainable.

我希望印度不要像中国一样发展。中国的成长是投资驱动的,所以带来了很多问题,比如供给过剩和产能过剩。这就像1991年的日本和80年代的韩国一样。印度的成长是消费驱动的,虽然不那么刺激,但是更加可持续一些。



分页: 1 2 3

无觅相关文章插件,快速提升流量