从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

美国雅虎:中国经济正在处于6.8万亿美元噩梦中

2014-11-30 08:03 137个评论 字号:

灰色的公寓楼杂乱的散布在鄂尔多斯,这是一座体现中国式浪费投资的典型鬼城。在过去的四年里,中国浪费了6.8万亿美元(4.3万亿英镑)投资。数字来自中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会及(其下属的)宏观经济研究院的一份报告,发表在金融时报网站。报告称该数额的投资属于“无效投资”。毫无疑问,6.8万亿难以想象。这个数字是德国经济两年的产出,是投资标准普尔500指数所有基金的4倍还多。

译者:janwoo
来源:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-326712-1-1.html
外文:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-economy-facing-6-8-085100243.html

The_Chinese_Economy_Is_Facing-297e7b1039cc39ea32767ae7e4a06720

The Chinese Economy Is Facing A $6.8 Trillion Nightmare That Could Get Worse

中国经济正在处于6.8万亿美元噩梦中,可能更糟

REUTERS/David Gray Empty apartment buildings litter Ordos, one of the “ghost cities” that have characterised China’s wasteful investment. The Chinese economy has wasted $6.8 trillion (£4.3 trillion) in investment during the last four years.
Six-point-eight trillion dollars.

路透社/David 灰色的公寓楼杂乱的散布在鄂尔多斯,这是一座体现中国式浪费投资的典型鬼城。在过去的四年里,中国浪费了6.8万亿美元(4.3万亿英镑)投资。

That’s according to a report from China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, written up here in the Financial Times. The report says that amount has been “ineffective investment.”

For sure, $6.8 trillion is a difficult figure to imagine. That’s two years of output for the entire German economy . It’s more than four times as much as is invested in S&P 500 index funds .

Even in the enormous Chinese economy, that’s practically half of the investment between 2009 and 2013, the period covered by the investigation. This is likely to have pretty grim effects on Chinese economic growth in the years ahead.

Investment of whatever variety initially shows us up in GDP figures. For example, the spending on building a bridge. Initially, the bridge construction will boost GDP simply because of the spending needed to finish it.

数字来自中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会及(其下属的)宏观经济研究院的一份报告,发表在金融时报网站。报告称该数额的投资属于“无效投资”。

毫无疑问,6.8万亿难以想象。这个数字是德国经济两年的产出,是投资标准普尔500指数所有基金的4倍还多。

甚至以庞大的中国经济总量计算,这几乎是其2009至2013这期间投资额的一半。这个事实对很可能中国往后几年的经济发展影响极其恶劣。
形式各异的投资首先体现在GDP数字上。例如,建造一座桥梁的花费上。一开始,桥梁的建造将拉动GDP,你需要花钱去完工。

但是之后,桥梁的经济性由许多因素左右:桥梁连接了那些地方?如果是有用的投资,桥的建成将让消费者去城里 “天堑”变坦途,促进消费,让他们可以更多的去购物。如果是一座通往偏僻处的桥梁,就不太可能有这种功效,只会浪费资源、对将来的发展没有正面作用。

中国的6.8万亿似乎投到了这些通往虚无的桥梁上。

发表在金融时报上的报告中,作者将其归咎于低利率和其他类型的政府经济刺激,暗示存在着某类错误的投资。中国无人居住的鬼城是这类浪费投资的最最典型的象征。

after that, the economic effect of the bridge depends on a lot: Where is it from? Where does it lead to? If it’s a useful investment, it could keep boosting spending by making consumers’ journey to a city less arduous, and allowing them to go to the shops more often. If it’s a bridge to nowhere, it’s not likely to have that effect, and will simply be a waste of resources without any positive growth effect in the future.

China seems to have built the equivalent of $6.8 trillion in bridges to nowhere.

According to the FT, the authors are blaming the investment on low interest rates and other forms of government stimulus, suggesting that there’s been a sort of malinvestment . The country’s deserted ghost cities are probably the ultimate symbol of this wasted investment.

And if that’s the case, it’s not likely to be the last of it: The People’s Bank of China just slashed interest rates, and it looks like there’s probably more coming. The economy has slowed significantly in recent years: The government now targets a growth rate of 7.5%, well down from the double-digit rates seen before the crisis, and many analysts believe they will struggle to even reach that.

That’s not all: The problem is exacerbated by graft and corruption among the country’s autocratic elite, which skims off the investment whether it’s wasteful or not. If the report’s authors are correct about the causes, don’t expect to see an improvement in the quality of China’s investment any time soon.

如果这是开始的话,现在肯定不是最后一次:中国人民银行刚刚将利率大幅下调,而且很可能会陆续有类似的举措。近期经济明显减速,政府现在的增长目标是7.5%,较危机前的两位数字增长大幅下调,许多分析家认为要取得现在的目标也是困难重重。

更麻烦的是,问题被该国毒菜的精英阶层的贪污腐败加剧,无论投资是否有效、精英阶层都能从中搜刮油水。如果报告的作者是对的,近期不要对中国的投资质量抱有任何希望。

以下是评论:

Eric 4 hours ago 0 4
I watched a 60 minute program on chinas ghost cities…
I was like OMG and i’m not a teenage girl.
For as far as you can see its just block after block of condos and malls etc, whole modern cities and no one lives there, no one works there. It is just miles of empty buildings.
I do not see how they can sustain that sort of thing and survive.
My guess is a large part of the growth we’ve been seeing out of china over the last few years is not real.

看过一期关于中国鬼城的60分钟时事节目。。。
我的感觉是天啊。我不是个小丫头。
你看到的是延绵不断的公寓楼、商厦、现代化城市,可是没人居住、没人在那上班。都是些空荡荡的建筑。
我不知道他们如何能维持这些,怎样存活下去。
我猜中国过去几年的增长中有相当大的成分是虚假的。

 

Collapse Replies (1) Reply
Intrepid
Intrepid 46 minutes ago 0 0
Of course not. Entirely set up for the fat cats to walk away with full pockets. Thats how it works.

当然是假的。都是有权有势的为中饱私囊设计的。这是他们的手法。

 

More
Sankara
Sankara 19 hours ago 0 17
They speak of countries being large economies based on their GDP. I believe the judgement is incomplete unless the capacity to consume matches the capacity to produce.

It is this mismatch that has been causing this aberration regarding assessing the strength of economy of a country.

China has been able to produce way too much more than what they can consume. This resulted in wasted production that depreciates before its value is realized/consumed.

US started consuming significantly more than it produced. The national debt is a reflection of that. Hope this would be contained sooner than later for the country to get back to a balanced tread. As I see, Americans are getting aware of the need to produce and we are putting in efforts to turn around. But is that enough effort??? That is a million dollar question!

大家谈论经济体的大小都是基于国家的GDP。我认为这个判定是不全面的,除非其消费与产出是相称的。
这个偏差带来对一个国家的经济能力的错误估算。
中国有能力提供多于其消费的产出,这导致无效生产、在产出价值被实现或消费前就已经贬值。
而美国则是很久以前其消费就大于产出。国债就是反映。希望这个问题能够及早解决,让国家回到均衡的路子上去。在我看来,美国人逐渐明白制造的重要性,我们在努力。问题是我们的努力足够吗???这是个很难回答的问题。



分页: 1 2 3

友荐云推荐

无觅相关文章插件,快速提升流量