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穆迪胜选为印度的繁荣带来最佳时机

中国崛起是过去三十年全世界最大的变化。中国的人均gdp从300美元增加到6750美元,不仅为数以亿计的人民带来了繁荣,更改变了世界经济和地缘政治。30年前,印度的人均gdp和中国一样,现在四分之一不到。期中虽然有过大量的改革出台,以及经济井喷。印度的增长势头始终比不上东亚。沮丧,大材小用,教育程度差,不健康,饥饿,人的代价惊人。

译者:freelancer
外文:http://defence.pk/threads/india%E2%80%99s-strongman-the-economist.315334/


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Narendra Modi’s amazing victory gives India its best chance ever of prosperity

穆迪胜选为印度的繁荣带来最佳时机

THE most important change in the world over the past 30 years has been the rise of China. The increase in its average annual GDP per head from around $300 to $6,750 over the period has not just brought previously unimagined prosperity to hundreds of millions of people, but has also remade the world economy and geopolitics.

中国崛起是过去三十年全世界最大的变化。中国的人均gdp从300美元增加到6750美元,不仅为数以亿计的人民带来了繁荣,更改变了世界经济和地缘政治。

India’s GDP per head was the same as China’s three decades ago. It is now less than a quarter of the size. Despite a couple of bouts of reform and spurts of growth, India’s economy has never achieved the momentum that has dragged much of East Asia out of poverty. The human cost, in terms of frustrated, underemployed, ill-educated, unhealthy, hungry people, has been immense.

30年前,印度的人均gdp和中国一样,现在四分之一不到。期中虽然有过大量的改革出台,以及经济井喷。印度的增长势头始终比不上东亚。沮丧,大材小用,教育程度差,不健康,饥饿,人的代价惊人。

Now, for the first time ever, India has a strong government whose priority is growth. Narendra Modi, who leads the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has won a tremendous victory on the strength of promising to make India’s economy work. Although we did not endorse him, because we believe that he has not atoned sufficiently for the massacre of Muslims that took place in Gujarat while he was chief minister, we wish him every success: an Indian growth miracle would be a great thing not just for Indians, but also for the world.

现在,印度第一次有了一个强大的政府,一个优先发展经济的政府。穆迪和他领导的人民党通过承诺发展经济赢了压倒性胜利。基于穆迪担任首席部长期间在古吉拉特邦发生的穆斯林大屠杀事件,他至今没有做出充分补偿,我们不支持穆迪,但依然祝福他能成功。印度的增长奇迹不单单对印度,也是全世界的大事。

From lackey to leader

从仆人到领袖

Government is at the heart of India’s failure. The few strong governments India has had—always dominated by the Congress party, a Nehru-Gandhi family fief—have had rotten economic agendas. Reformist politicians—like the outgoing prime minister, Manmohan Singh—have lacked the clout to implement their policies.

印度的失败本质原因是政府。国大党统治下的政府少有强大的政府。尼赫鲁甘地家族已经破坏了印度的经济进程,改革政治家,像辛格总理都缺乏施政的影响力。

That is partly because India is an extraordinarily hard place to govern. Much power is devolved to the states; the fissiparous nature of its polity means that deals have constantly to be done with a vast array of regional and caste-based parties; and a colonial and socialist past has bequeathed India a bureaucracy whose direction is hard to change.

部分原因是印度本身就是很难管理的国家。过多的权利下放到各个邦,政体的特性决定决议需要通过各种各样宗教和种姓政党来完成。殖民和社会主义的过往给了印度一个很难改变的官僚体系。

Mr Singh, who was not much more than a Gandhi family retainer, had little chance of doing so. Mr Modi, by contrast, has huge authority, both within his party and in the country. The BJP’s victory owes something to good organisation but most to its leader’s appeal. Not since Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984 has India had such a powerful personality in charge.

辛格总理,更像甘地家族的家臣,很难执行改革。穆迪则恰恰相反,在政党和全国都有威信。人民党的胜在良好的组织上,更赢在穆迪个人号召力上。自1984年甘地以来,印度第一次有这样人格魅力的领导人。

Mr Modi has an outright majority—282 of the 543 elected seats in Parliament’s lower house. Only Congress has ever won a majority by itself before, and it has not had one for 30 years. The combination of parliamentary clout and personal power means that Mr Modi has a better chance of getting state governments to go along with him than Mr Singh did. Congress, meanwhile, has been routed, retaining just 44 seats. The joke goes that until last week India had no government; now it has no opposition.

穆迪在国会有绝对多数,543席中占了282席。只有国大党30年前有过。国会的影响力和个人能力使得穆迪比辛格更有机会让各邦政府听命于他。国大党溃败,保留44席。有个笑话,印度上周之前都没有政府,现在没有在野党。

Mr Modi has a mandate for economic reform. Although his core supporters are religious nationalists, steeped in the glories of a Hindu past, it was the votes of the young, urban and educated that won him the election. They were turned off by Congress’s drift and venality, and its preference for welfare handouts over fostering opportunity. They want the chance of self-advancement that Mr Modi, a tea-seller’s son, both represents and promises.

穆迪已经有一个有经济改革命令。他的核心支持者是热衷印度过往荣耀的宗教民族主义者,年轻人,城镇人口,高等教育者让他赢得了大选。国大党的渎职和贪污,以及只会搞福利施舍让这群人大失所望,他们想要的是穆迪代表和承诺的:自立自强的机会。

His first task is to stabilise a fragile economy. He must clean out the banks (bad loans are preventing a recovery), sort out the government’s own finances (chronic deficits are at the root of India’s inflation), cut subsidies, widen the tax base and allow the central bank to pursue a tougher anti-inflation policy.

穆迪的首要任务是稳定虚弱的经济。他必须清理银行死债,理清政府自身财务状况,减少津贴,扩大税源,允许央行推行更严格的抑制通胀的政策。

His second task is to create jobs. Labour laws are rigid, land for factories often impossible to acquire at any price, and electricity patchy. Mr Modi must launch sweeping land reforms, crack heads in the misfiring coal and electricity industries and make India more of a single market not just by improving roads, ports and the like, but also by cutting the red tape that Balkanises the economy. A national sales tax would help here, replacing myriad local levies. Such relatively straightforward steps could make a powerful difference, raising the Indian growth rate by two or even three percentage points from its current 4-5%.

第二项任务是创造就业。劳动法非常死板,工厂用地任何价格都买不到,电力也短缺,穆迪必须推行彻底的用地改革,解决煤和电力工业的问题,让印度成为一个统一市场,而不是仅仅修修路机场港口,同时还得改掉官僚作风。这些相对直接了当的动作能够让印度经济现在的4-5%的增速再提升2到3个点。

Reaching out to Pakistan would bring economic as well as security benefits. Trade between Pakistan and India is currently negligible, and there is huge scope for growth. As a leader from the nationalist right, Mr Modi is well placed to bring about a rapprochement, rather as Menachem Begin could make peace between Israel and Egypt. The initial signs are good: Mr Modi has invited Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to his inauguration.

和巴基斯坦接洽能带来经济和安全双重好处。两国现在的贸易量可以忽略不计,所有有很大的增长空间。作为民族主义右翼的领袖,穆迪可以实现两国和睦,类似埃及和以色列。现在有了一个好的开始:穆迪邀请巴基斯坦总理参加他的就职典礼。

One rule for all

There are three main dangers. One is that Mr Modi turns out to be more of a Hindu nationalist than an economic reformer. He has spoken of “bringing everyone along”. But while he has already worshipped at the Ganges since his victory, promising to clean up the river sacred to Hindus, he has not brought himself to mention Muslims, who make up 15% of the population.

穆迪有三个失败的风险。一是穆迪成为一个印度教民族主义者,而不是一个改革家。他说过带领所有人一起,但竞选胜利后,他祭拜并承诺清理印度教圣河恒河,但却没提及占全国人口15%的穆斯林。

A second danger is that he is defeated by the country’s complexity. His efforts at reform, like all previous reformers’ efforts, may be overwhelmed by a combination of politics, bureaucracy and corruption. If that happens, India will be condemned to another generation or two of underachievement.

第二个风险是印度的国情复杂性。穆迪就像以往的改革者一样,被政治现实,官僚体制,腐败击垮。如果那样,印度将承受几代人的低迷。

A third is that Mr Modi’s strength will go to his head, and he will rule as an autocrat, not a democrat—as Indira Gandhi did for a while. There are grounds for concern. After years of drift under Congress, some of the country’s institutions have rotted. The main police investigator is politically directed, the media can be bought, the central bank, which does not have statutory independence, has been bullied before, and Mr Modi has authoritarian tendencies.

第三点是穆迪被权利冲昏了头脑,成为一个独裁者,就像有一阵子甘地那样。这种担心是有依据的,经过多年国大党的放任自流式统治,印度很多机构都已经僵化。警队督察是政党控制的,媒体可以被收买,央行不能自主决定。穆迪也有这样的集权的倾向。

The risks are there, but this is a time for optimism. With a strong government committed to growth and a population hungry for it, India has its best chance of making a break for prosperity since independence.

虽然风险存在,当下依旧乐观。基于政府以及人民对发展的强烈期盼,印度拥有自独立以来实现突破式发展的最好时机。

以下是巴基斯坦军坛读者的评论:



Modi is India's best chance to achieve sustained double-digit growth rates in the future.But first, he must repair the damage done to India's economy by Congress. And that would be a feat like cleaning the Augean stables.中国

穆迪(上任)是印度实现两位数增长的最好机会,但首先他得修补国大党对经济的损害,就像清扫脏地方。

Thank you,Markets have already passed Aussie ones due to Modi Euphor。印度


谢谢,因为穆迪上任的利好,印度市场估值已经超过澳大利亚了。


When did you start complimenting Modi?
I am surprised you know him (this is not an insult btw, just curiosity)印度


你啥时候开始赞美穆迪。我很吃惊你居然知道他(就是侮辱,纯粹好奇)



He is wise man.印度

他是个聪明人

Of course he is.He is Chinese! They know how to run an economy.印度


他当然是,他是中国人,知道怎么发展经济。



We've been treating Modi like a national leader since at least 2011:
China rolls out red carpet for Narendra Modi - The Times of India
Anyway, I like leaders who are pro-business, and those who "talk less do more". Modi seems to be the epitome of both.中国

我们从2011年就像招待国家领导人一样对待穆迪。印度时报:中国铺红地毯迎接穆迪。

不管咋样,我喜欢重商以及实干的领导人。穆迪似乎是两者的缩影。

I remember back in the day, you used to troll Indians a lot . Since becoming a Think Tank, it seems you have become much more level headed。印度


我记得你以前总在发钓鱼帖。自从成了一个智库,你好像脑子清醒多了。



See already we can see changes in comment from chinese member after MODI winning election.....Already said world is big enough to satisfy China's and India's interest but that will depend on how both truly and honestly want it. World can not digest one more lone superpower now. 印度

穆迪当选以来,看来中国会员(防务论坛)的回帖也变了,已经在讲世界足够大,容得下印度和中国。但这取决于两国有多真诚。现在世界只容得下一个超级大国。

Calm down Young blood ,China is decades ahead of us. Let us focus on getting India bac on track.印度


别激动,年青人。中国领先我们几十年。我们先要让印度回到轨道上来吧。


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