2014-05-25 00:05 47个评论 字号:




Narendra Modi’s amazing victory gives India its best chance ever of prosperity


THE most important change in the world over the past 30 years has been the rise of China. The increase in its average annual GDP per head from around $300 to $6,750 over the period has not just brought previously unimagined prosperity to hundreds of millions of people, but has also remade the world economy and geopolitics.


India’s GDP per head was the same as China’s three decades ago. It is now less than a quarter of the size. Despite a couple of bouts of reform and spurts of growth, India’s economy has never achieved the momentum that has dragged much of East Asia out of poverty. The human cost, in terms of frustrated, underemployed, ill-educated, unhealthy, hungry people, has been immense.


Now, for the first time ever, India has a strong government whose priority is growth. Narendra Modi, who leads the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has won a tremendous victory on the strength of promising to make India’s economy work. Although we did not endorse him, because we believe that he has not atoned sufficiently for the massacre of Muslims that took place in Gujarat while he was chief minister, we wish him every success: an Indian growth miracle would be a great thing not just for Indians, but also for the world.


From lackey to leader


Government is at the heart of India’s failure. The few strong governments India has had—always dominated by the Congress party, a Nehru-Gandhi family fief—have had rotten economic agendas. Reformist politicians—like the outgoing prime minister, Manmohan Singh—have lacked the clout to implement their policies.


That is partly because India is an extraordinarily hard place to govern. Much power is devolved to the states; the fissiparous nature of its polity means that deals have constantly to be done with a vast array of regional and caste-based parties; and a colonial and socialist past has bequeathed India a bureaucracy whose direction is hard to change.


Mr Singh, who was not much more than a Gandhi family retainer, had little chance of doing so. Mr Modi, by contrast, has huge authority, both within his party and in the country. The BJP’s victory owes something to good organisation but most to its leader’s appeal. Not since Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984 has India had such a powerful personality in charge.


Mr Modi has an outright majority—282 of the 543 elected seats in Parliament’s lower house. Only Congress has ever won a majority by itself before, and it has not had one for 30 years. The combination of parliamentary clout and personal power means that Mr Modi has a better chance of getting state governments to go along with him than Mr Singh did. Congress, meanwhile, has been routed, retaining just 44 seats. The joke goes that until last week India had no government; now it has no opposition.


Mr Modi has a mandate for economic reform. Although his core supporters are religious nationalists, steeped in the glories of a Hindu past, it was the votes of the young, urban and educated that won him the election. They were turned off by Congress’s drift and venality, and its preference for welfare handouts over fostering opportunity. They want the chance of self-advancement that Mr Modi, a tea-seller’s son, both represents and promises.


His first task is to stabilise a fragile economy. He must clean out the banks (bad loans are preventing a recovery), sort out the government’s own finances (chronic deficits are at the root of India’s inflation), cut subsidies, widen the tax base and allow the central bank to pursue a tougher anti-inflation policy.


His second task is to create jobs. Labour laws are rigid, land for factories often impossible to acquire at any price, and electricity patchy. Mr Modi must launch sweeping land reforms, crack heads in the misfiring coal and electricity industries and make India more of a single market not just by improving roads, ports and the like, but also by cutting the red tape that Balkanises the economy. A national sales tax would help here, replacing myriad local levies. Such relatively straightforward steps could make a powerful difference, raising the Indian growth rate by two or even three percentage points from its current 4-5%.


Reaching out to Pakistan would bring economic as well as security benefits. Trade between Pakistan and India is currently negligible, and there is huge scope for growth. As a leader from the nationalist right, Mr Modi is well placed to bring about a rapprochement, rather as Menachem Begin could make peace between Israel and Egypt. The initial signs are good: Mr Modi has invited Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to his inauguration.


One rule for all

There are three main dangers. One is that Mr Modi turns out to be more of a Hindu nationalist than an economic reformer. He has spoken of “bringing everyone along”. But while he has already worshipped at the Ganges since his victory, promising to clean up the river sacred to Hindus, he has not brought himself to mention Muslims, who make up 15% of the population.


A second danger is that he is defeated by the country’s complexity. His efforts at reform, like all previous reformers’ efforts, may be overwhelmed by a combination of politics, bureaucracy and corruption. If that happens, India will be condemned to another generation or two of underachievement.


A third is that Mr Modi’s strength will go to his head, and he will rule as an autocrat, not a democrat—as Indira Gandhi did for a while. There are grounds for concern. After years of drift under Congress, some of the country’s institutions have rotted. The main police investigator is politically directed, the media can be bought, the central bank, which does not have statutory independence, has been bullied before, and Mr Modi has authoritarian tendencies.


The risks are there, but this is a time for optimism. With a strong government committed to growth and a population hungry for it, India has its best chance of making a break for prosperity since independence.



Modi is India’s best chance to achieve sustained double-digit growth rates in the future.But first, he must repair the damage done to India’s economy by Congress. And that would be a feat like cleaning the Augean stables.中国


Thank you,Markets have already passed Aussie ones due to Modi Euphor。印度


When did you start complimenting Modi?
I am surprised you know him (this is not an insult btw, just curiosity)印度


He is wise man.印度


Of course he is.He is Chinese! They know how to run an economy.印度


We’ve been treating Modi like a national leader since at least 2011:
China rolls out red carpet for Narendra Modi – The Times of India
Anyway, I like leaders who are pro-business, and those who “talk less do more”. Modi seems to be the epitome of both.中国



I remember back in the day, you used to troll Indians a lot . Since becoming a Think Tank, it seems you have become much more level headed。印度


See already we can see changes in comment from chinese member after MODI winning election…..Already said world is big enough to satisfy China’s and India’s interest but that will depend on how both truly and honestly want it. World can not digest one more lone superpower now. 印度


Calm down Young blood ,China is decades ahead of us. Let us focus on getting India bac on track.印度


  1. 别激动,年青人。中国领先我们几十年。我们先要让印度回到轨道上来吧。神马意思?印度人跑到巴铁网站。

  2. He is wise man.印度他是个聪明人Of course he is.He is Chinese! They know how to run an economy.印度他当然是,他是中国人,知道怎么发展经济。哇啊。。。俺被三哥侮辱啦。。。三哥骂人。。。我不干,我不干。。。三哥每次贴上来我都想吐。。。

  3. 当初的中国也是这么被人看不起 被喊成***猪,被贴牌 中国人与狗不能进入。这比印度受到的耻辱要大很多,但我们还是崛起了,现在轮到你们去小看别人了,骄傲不可取

  4. 呵呵,其实印度人和国内某些人以为是这30年才发展起来。这三十年充其量是锦上添花罢了。锦上添花的事情容易做。创建新中国,把一盘散沙凝聚在一起打下工业化的基础,搞中华大革命(wg远远超过法国大革命)缓解阶级固化。印度根本就不知道嘛。没这些基础的东西。你肯定搞不起工业化嘛。印度顶多就是拉美经济模式。米帝看到你长肥了剪羊毛。

    • 30年来是发展最快的,但是以前的基础不能否定,否则即使49年建国就马上改革开放也只是沦为国外的资源掠夺地而已,当然也不能否认60——70年代间的大破坏极大的减缓了本来应该发展轨迹的速度,已经是超出了正常改革损耗的地步,但我们也必须承认他,一个人成长的经历不可能没有摔倒也没有犯过错,这一切加起来才是现在完整的一个人,这都是必须正视的。印度这段文章分析的没错,但是在我看来有点相当于一个本性懒惰眼高于顶的家里蹲,一个人指出他要改变一事无成的现状必须努力去学习进修,踏踏实实做事才能成功。——这话分析得也没错,但对于本性懒惰的人来说努力学习踏踏实实做事这本身就是一个难题。像这报道分析穆迪需要做的那两点,是否能稍微触到其中任何一点的核心我都表示怀疑。

  5. 世界经济高速发展的末班车已经过去,中国上去了,后来的再想高速发展经济,几乎不可能,不单指印度,哪个发展中国家都没希望了,原因就是一个:石油,中国的经济发展对石油的大量需求,已经使油价涨到了一个过高的位置,后来的国家再想从低油价中获取发展动力,已经不可能了!

  6. ***国家有一个通病就是领导人如流水而公务员则如铁打的营盘,任你谁来做主官都要用我来工作,效率高制度健全的西方国家到还能高效运转,而低素质的印度却也来这套就形成了如今印度国内贪腐遍地效率低下的现状!凭借墓地和人民党的力量能使印度改变什么?他什么也改变不了,墓地的招数无非就是当年瓦杰帕伊的那几招,挑动民族主义弄些华而不实的小动作来彰显他领导下的印度如何让如何让,到头来穷人还是穷人、贪腐还是贪腐,印度依然还是那个鸟样!于是乎印度人民就开始寄希望于出现第二个墓地的下次选举获胜,再来个4年的幻想期!

  7. 就资料上看,穆迪是务实的,他来中国三次,中方带他也不薄,相信他不会刻意与中国过不去,毕竟印度也要发展,也有很多他国内的问题,再说啦!印度于中国交恶,对它有什么好处?这也是不务实的,所以,中印交流将比国大党更务实,更密切,走着瞧吧!至少他第一任期会是向好的方向进行。